MID-WEEK SPIN - The Michigan - Florida Palaver Will Be Settled this Saturday! (Bolaji Aluko)
May 29, 2008 | posted by Nigerian Muse (Archives)
|
MID-WEEK SPIN: The Michigan - Florida Palaver Will Be Settled this Saturday!
May 29, 2008
My People:
There is no doubt that both Michigan (17 EVs, 128 Pledged Delegates, and 29 Superdelegates, 2006 Population 10 million) and Florida (27 EVs, 185 Pledged Delegates and 26 Superdelegates; 2006 Population of 18 million) are delegate-rich, general-election-voter-rich and electoral-vote-rich, swing states that should not be completed dissed. Yet they violated the party rules, and party discipline dictates that they should not completely get away with it.
Consequently, of the five possible sanction scenarios that will have to be considered by the Rules and ByeLaws Committee of the DNC in its crucial meeting on Saturday May 31 (which I now choose to watch on TV rather than join in a counter-protest):
- Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules......NOT POLITICALLY SMART; MI, FL, HILLARY NOT SUPPORTIVE
- Seat FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and supers full vote........TEAM HILLARY WILL NOT SUPPORT IT
- Seat FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers.................NOT POLITICALLY SMART; MI, FL WILL NOT SUPPORT IT
- FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote........................MID-WAY BETWEEN FULL AND NO PUNISHMENT
- Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place....TEAM OBAMA AND THE DNC RULES WILL NOT SUPPORT IT
I support Option 4 as the fairest political option that keeps Florida and Michigan still close to the Democratic Party column, but which still partially punishes them for violation of party rules.
Team Obama will and should support it.
Will Team Hillary continue its battle if its preferred Option 5 is not adopted on Saturday? At this point, listening to her advisors Harold Ickes, Howard Wolfson and Lanny Davis - not to talk of the body language of Hillary and Bill themselves - they will continue the battle and try to bring it to the Convention Floor in August.
Obama should then ignore her completely, choose his Veep early, and then ensure that he piles up 2210 delegates.
I approved this message,
Bolaji Aluko
| Scenario 4: FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote |
| Delegates Available: 4260.5 |
Nomination: 2130.5 |
PD majority: 1705.0 |
| |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Others(1) |
NYA(2) |
YTV(3) |
Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) |
1660.5 |
1499.5 |
7 |
-- |
-- |
86 |
3253 |
| MI Pledged Delegates |
11.0 |
36.5 |
-- |
16.5 |
-- |
-- |
64 |
| FL Pledged Delegates |
34.5 |
52.5 |
5.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
92.5 |
| Total Pledged Delegates |
1706.0 |
1588.5 |
12.5 |
16.5 |
-- |
86 |
3409.5 |
| Needed for PD majority |
Clinched! |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) |
319.5 |
280.5 |
-- |
196 |
-- |
-- |
796 |
| FL & MI Superdelegates |
10 |
15 |
-- |
30 |
-- |
-- |
55 |
| Total Delegates |
2035.5 |
1884.0 |
12.5 |
242.5 |
-- |
86 |
4260.5 |
| Delegates Lead |
151.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Delegates needed to win Nomination |
95.0 |
246.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Left |
328.5 |
| |
THE BACKGROUNDER.........
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/florida-and-michigan-superdelegates.html
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Here's a list of the superdelegates from Florida and Michigan. We've always included these superdelegates on our lists of supers who have and have not committed to a candidate, but they're shown in red, and not included in most of our delegate trackers. Whether these supers get seated is up to the RBC, the Credentials Committee, and the convention itself.
Florida Add-on Dan Gelber's endorsement of Obama today was the first endorsement by a Florida or Michigan super in at least 2 months.
Florida: 26 superdelegates, including 3 add-ons (shown with a #)
- Clinton has 8 of them: Sen. Bill Nelson, Chuck Mohlke, Raul Martinez, Rep. Alcee Hastings, Rep. Corrine Brown, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Rep. Kendrick Meek, Ken Curtis
- Obama has 5: Allan Katz, Joyce Cusack, Rep. Kathy Castor, Rep. Robert Wexler, Dan Gelber#
- 13 are Uncommitted: Rep. Allen Boyd, Diane Glasser, Jon Ausman, Janee Murphy, Karen Thurman, Mitchell Ceasar, Rep. Ron Klein, Rudolph Parker, Terrie Brady, Rep. Tim Mahoney, Andrew Tobias, Alex Sink#, Steve Geller#
Michigan: 29 superdelegates, including 2 add-ons still to be selected on June 14:
- Clinton has 7: Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Rep. John Dingell, Rep. Sander Levin, Rep. Dale Kildee, John Cherry, Joel Ferguson
- Obama has 5: Rep. John Conyers, Robert Ficano, Virgie Rollins, Eric Coleman, Lauren Wolfe,
- 15 are Uncommitted: Sen. Carl Levin, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, Rep. Bart Stupak, Arthenia Abbott, Debbie Dingell, Elizabeth Bunn, Jeffrey Radjewski, Joyce Lalonde, Michael Tardiff, Richard Wiener, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, Lu Battaglieri, Richard Shoemaker, Mark Brewer, Brenda Lawrence
Total: Clinton 15, Obama 10, Uncommitted and unselected: 30
__
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
There are all sorts of scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. Some recently discussed scenarios include seating all MI/FL pledged delegates with 1/2 vote, (supers at 1/2 or full vote), and a proposal by Michigan Dems propose 69-59 split. We've taken five of the most likely and interesting ones and run the numbers.
The scenarios are:
- Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
- Seat FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and supers full vote.
- Seat FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers
- FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote
- Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. This scenario is in the left sidebar.
Note that in scenarios 3-5, we assign 18 of the 55 Uncommitted Michigan delegates to Obama. 36 CD-level Uncommitted delegates have been selected, and we've found sufficient sources to place
18 of them in Obama's column. Some, or all, of the other 18, as well as the 19 state-wide Uncommitted delegates which will be picked on June 14, are said to be supporting Obama, but we have not found sufficient sources to add them to Obama's numbers as of now. We have not found any Uncommitted delegates who have said they are supporting Clinton.
We are not endorsing any of these scenarios. We're just providing information so our readers can judge how each scenario will affect the race.
List of Florida and Michigan superdelegates.
| FL & MI SCENARIOS |
| Scenario 1: Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules |
| Delegates Available: 4049.0 |
Nomination: 2025.0 |
PD majority: 1627.0 |
| |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Others(1) |
NYA(2) |
YTV(3) |
Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) |
1660.5 |
1499.5 |
7 |
-- |
-- |
86 |
3253 |
| Needed for PD majority |
Clinched! |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) |
319.5 |
280.5 |
-- |
196 |
-- |
-- |
796 |
| Total Delegates |
1980.0 |
1780.0 |
7 |
196 |
-- |
86 |
4049 |
| Delegates Lead |
200.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Needed to win Nomination |
45.0 |
245.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Left |
282 |
| |
| Scenario 2: FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote. |
| Delegates Available: 4324.5 |
Nomination: 2162.5 |
PD majority: 1737.0 |
| |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Others(1) |
NYA(2) |
YTV(3) |
Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) |
1660.5 |
1499.5 |
7 |
0 |
-- |
86 |
3253 |
| MI Pledged Delegates |
59 |
69 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
128 |
| FL Pledged Delegates |
34.5 |
52.5 |
5.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
92.5 |
| Total Pledged Delegates |
1754.0 |
1621.0 |
12.5 |
0 |
-- |
86 |
3473.5 |
| Needed for PD majority |
Clinched! |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) |
319.5 |
280.5 |
-- |
196 |
-- |
-- |
796 |
| FL & MI Superdelegates |
10 |
15 |
-- |
30 |
-- |
-- |
55 |
| Total Delegates |
2083.5 |
1916.5 |
12.5 |
226 |
-- |
86 |
4324.5 |
| Delegates Lead |
167.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Delegates needed to win Nomination |
79.0 |
246.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Left |
312 |
| |
| Scenario 3: FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers |
| Delegates Available: 4233.0 |
Nomination: 2117.0 |
PD majority: 1705.0 |
| |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Others(1) |
NYA(2) |
YTV(3) |
Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) |
1660.5 |
1499.5 |
7 |
-- |
-- |
86 |
3253 |
| MI Pledged Delegates |
11.0 |
36.5 |
-- |
16.5 |
-- |
-- |
64 |
| FL Pledged Delegates |
34.5 |
52.5 |
5.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
92.5 |
| Total Pledged Delegates |
1706.0 |
1588.5 |
12.5 |
16.5 |
-- |
86 |
3409.5 |
| Needed for PD majority |
Clinched! |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) |
319.5 |
280.5 |
-- |
196 |
-- |
-- |
796 |
| FL & MI Superdelegates |
5 |
7.5 |
-- |
15 |
-- |
-- |
27.5 |
| Total Delegates |
2030.5 |
1876.5 |
12.5 |
227.5 |
-- |
86 |
4233.0 |
| Delegates Lead |
154.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Delegates needed to win Nomination |
86.5 |
240.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Left |
313.5 |
| |
| Scenario 4: FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote |
| Delegates Available: 4260.5 |
Nomination: 2130.5 |
PD majority: 1705.0 |
| |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Others(1) |
NYA(2) |
YTV(3) |
Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) |
1660.5 |
1499.5 |
7 |
-- |
-- |
86 |
3253 |
| MI Pledged Delegates |
11.0 |
36.5 |
-- |
16.5 |
-- |
-- |
64 |
| FL Pledged Delegates |
34.5 |
52.5 |
5.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
92.5 |
| Total Pledged Delegates |
1706.0 |
1588.5 |
12.5 |
16.5 |
-- |
86 |
3409.5 |
| Needed for PD majority |
Clinched! |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) |
319.5 |
280.5 |
-- |
196 |
-- |
-- |
796 |
| FL & MI Superdelegates |
10 |
15 |
-- |
30 |
-- |
-- |
55 |
| Total Delegates |
2035.5 |
1884.0 |
12.5 |
242.5 |
-- |
86 |
4260.5 |
| Delegates Lead |
151.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Delegates needed to win Nomination |
95.0 |
246.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Left |
328.5 |
| |
Scenario 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place.
(Obama gets 22 of 55 MI uncommitted). |
| Delegates Available: 4417.0 |
Nomination: 2209.0 |
PD majority: 1783.5 |
| |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Others(1) |
NYA(2) |
YTV(3) |
Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) |
1757.5 |
1677.5 |
18 |
33 |
-- |
86 |
3566 |
| Needed for PD majority |
32.0 |
106.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) |
329.5 |
295.5 |
-- |
226 |
-- |
-- |
851 |
| Total Delegates |
2081.0 |
1973.0 |
18 |
259 |
-- |
86 |
4417 |
| Delegates Lead |
108.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Delegates needed to win Nomination |
128.0 |
236.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Left |
345 |
| Last Updated: 05/28/2008 6:30 PM(EST) |
Notes: The scenarios and table are sorted from the highest candidate's lead to the lowest.
Others(1): Include Unknown, Uncommitted & No endorsements yet
NYA(2): Not Yet Assigned.
YTV(3): Not Yet Voted.
DELEGATE INFO AND STATE-BY-STATE RESULTS
Last updated Thursday, May 29, 2008
DCW Delegate Count (without Michigan and Florida)
Includes add-ons
Updated May 28, 2008
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-endorsement-notes.html
|
Candidate
|
Pledged
|
Super
|
Total
|
Need To Win
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
|
1660.5
|
320.5
|
1981
|
44
|
|
Clinton
|
1499.5
|
280.5
|
1780
|
245
|
|
Edwards
|
7
|
0
|
7
|
2019
|
|
Remains
|
86
|
195
|
281
|
|
|
Total
|
3253
|
796
|
4049
|
|
DCW Superdelegates by Position (without Michigan and Florida)
Updated May 28, 2008
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-endorsement-notes.html
|
Candidate
|
Obama
|
Clinton
|
None
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gov
|
14
|
11
|
6
|
31
|
|
Senators
|
20
|
13
|
15
|
48
|
|
Reps
|
96
|
80
|
48
|
224
|
|
DPL
|
6
|
9
|
4
|
19
|
|
DNC
|
159.5
|
150.5
|
88
|
398
|
|
Add-Ons
|
25
|
17
|
34
|
76
|
|
Total
|
320.5
|
280.5
|
195
|
796
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note:
Delegates Needed to Win – 2026 (With Michigan and Florida Excluded)
Delegates Needed to Win – 2210 When we include:
Michigan – 128 Pledged Delegates, 29 Superdelegates (Total 157 Delegates)
Florida – 185 Pledged Delegates 26 Superdelegates (Total 211 Delegates)
OBAMA NUMBERS
Update May 29, 2008
|
Source
|
Obama
|
Clinton
|
Others
|
Difference (O/C)
|
Comment
|
|
Obama.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Contests won
|
33
|
18
|
0
|
|
|
|
SD
|
322.5
|
283.5
|
0
|
Obama +39
|
190 Superdelegates left to commit to either Obama or Clinton
|
|
PD
|
1659.5
|
1499.5
|
8
|
Obama +160
|
32.5 Pledged delegates BEYOND majority for Obama
|
|
TD
|
1982
|
1783
|
8
|
Obama +199
|
44 Total Delegates left to nomination for Obama (out of 2026)
|
|
URL
|
http://www.barackobama.com/resultscenter/index.php
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
State-by-State Results
Main Source: http://www.barackobama.com/resultscenter/index.php
Updated May 28, 2008
|
DATE
(2008)
|
State
|
Electoral
Votes
2008
[2001 – 2010]
|
Add on info
|
Super
Delegates
+
Add-ons
|
Pledged
Delegates
|
|
Obama
|
Clinton
|
Others
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Delegates
|
|
|
|
4049
|
|
1982
|
1783
|
8
|
3773
|
|
|
Pledged Delegates
|
|
|
|
3253
|
|
1659.5
|
1499.5
|
8
|
3167
|
|
|
Super Delegates
|
|
720
(+76)
|
796
|
796
|
|
322.5
|
283.5
|
0
|
606
|
|
|
Pledged Delegates Details Follow
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
JAN 3
|
Iowa
|
7
|
+1)
|
12
|
45
|
|
25
|
14
|
6
|
45
|
|
JAN 8
|
New Hampshire
|
4
|
+1)
|
8
|
22
|
|
12
|
9
|
1
|
22
|
|
JAN 15
|
Michigan
|
17
|
0(128)
0(27+2)
|
0
|
0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
JAN 19
|
Nevada
|
5
|
+1)
|
9
|
25
|
|
14
|
11
|
0
|
25
|
|
JAN 26
|
South Carolina
|
8
|
+1)
|
9
|
45
|
|
32
|
12
|
1
|
45
|
|
JAN 29
|
Florida
|
27
|
0 (185)
0
(23+3)
|
0
|
0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
FEB 5
(Super
Tuesday)
|
Alabama
|
9
|
+1)
|
8
|
52
|
|
27
|
25
|
0
|
52
|
|
Alaska
|
3
|
+1)
|
5
|
13
|
|
10
|
3
|
0
|
13
|
|
|
American Samoa
|
0
|
+0)
|
6
|
3
|
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
Arizona
|
10
|
+1)
|
11
|
56
|
|
25
|
31
|
0
|
56
|
|
|
Arkansas
|
6
|
+1)
|
12
|
35
|
|
8
|
27
|
0
|
35
|
|
|
California
|
55
|
+5)
|
71
|
370
|
|
166
|
204
|
0
|
370
|
|
|
Colorado
|
9
|
+1)
|
15
|
55
|
|
36
|
19
|
0
|
55
|
|
|
Connecticut
|
7
|
+1)
|
12
|
48
|
|
26
|
22
|
0
|
48
|
|
|
Delaware
|
3
|
+1)
|
8
|
15
|
|
9
|
6
|
0
|
15
|
|
|
Democrats Abroad
|
0
|
+0)
|
4
|
7
|
|
4.5
|
2.5
|
0
|
7
|
|
|
Georgia
|
15
|
+2)
|
15
|
87
|
|
60
|
27
|
0
|
87
|
|
|
Idaho
|
4
|
+1)
|
5
|
18
|
|
15
|
3
|
0
|
18
|
|
|
Illinois
|
21
|
+3)
|
31
|
153
|
|
104
|
49
|
0
|
153
|
|
|
Kansas
|
6
|
+1)
|
9
|
32
|
|
23
|
9
|
0
|
32
|
|
|
Massachusetts
|
12
|
+2)
|
28
|
93
|
|
38
|
55
|
0
|
93
|
|
|
Minnesota
|
10
|
+2)
|
16
|
72
|
|
48
|
24
|
0
|
72
|
|
|
Missouri
|
11
|
+2)
|
16
|
72
|
|
36
|
36
|
0
|
72
|
|
|
New Jersey
|
15
|
+2)
|
20
|
107
|
|
48
|
59
|
0
|
107
|
|
|
New Mexico
|
5
|
+1)
|
12
|
26
|
|
12
|
14
|
0
|
26
|
|
|
New York
|
31
|
+4)
|
49
|
232
|
|
93
|
139
|
0
|
232
|
|
|
North Dakota
|
3
|
+1)
|
8
|
13
|
|
8
|
5
|
0
|
13
|
|
|
Oklahoma
|
7
|
+1)
|
10
|
38
|
|
14
|
24
|
0
|
38
|
|
|
Tennessee
|
11
|
+2)
|
17
|
68
|
|
28
|
40
|
0
|
68
|
|
|
Utah
|
5
|
+1)
|
6
|
23
|
|
14
|
9
|
0
|
23
|
|
FEB 9
|
Louisiana
|
9
|
+1)
|
11
|
56
|
|
34
|
22
|
0
|
56
|
|
|
Nebraska
|
5
|
+1)
|
7
|
24
|
|
16
|
8
|
0
|
24
|
|
|
Washington
|
11
|
+2)
|
19
|
78
|
|
52
|
26
|
0
|
78
|
|
|
Virgin Islands
|
0
|
+0)
|
6
|
3
|
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
|
FEB 10
|
Maine
|
4
|
+1)
|
8
|
24
|
|
15
|
9
|
0
|
24
|
|
FEB 12
|
District of Columbia
|
3
|
+2)
|
24
|
15
|
|
12
|
3
|
0
|
15
|
|
|
Maryland
|
10
|
+2)
|
29
|
70
|
|
42
|
28
|
0
|
70
|
|
|
Virginia
|
13
|
+2)
|
18
|
83
|
|
54
|
29
|
0
|
83
|
|
FEB 19
|
Hawaii
|
4
|
+1)
|
9
|
20
|
|
14
|
6
|
0
|
20
|
|
|
Wisconsin
|
10
|
+2)
|
18
|
74
|
|
42
|
32
|
0
|
74
|
|
MAR 4
|
Ohio
|
20
|
+2)
|
21
|
141
|
|
67
|
74
|
0
|
141
|
|
|
Rhode Island
|
4
|
+1)
|
12
|
21
|
|
8
|
13
|
0
|
21
|
|
|
Texas Primary
|
34
|
+3)
|
35
|
126
|
|
61
|
65
|
0
|
126
|
|
|
Texas Caucus
|
0
|
+0)
|
0
|
67
|
|
38
|
29
|
0
|
67
|
|
|
Vermont
|
3
|
+1)
|
8
|
15
|
|
9
|
6
|
0
|
15
|
|
MAR 9
|
Wyoming
|
3
|
+1)
|
6
|
12
|
|
7
|
5
|
0
|
12
|
|
MAR 11
|
Mississippi
|
6
|
+1)
|
8
|
33
|
|
20
|
13
|
0
|
33
|
|
APR 22
|
Pennsylvania
|
21
|
+3)
|
29
|
158
|
|
73
|
85
|
0
|
158
|
|
MAY 3
|
Guam
|
0
|
+0)
|
5
|
4
|
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
4
|
|
MAY 6
|
Indiana
|
11
|
+1)
|
12
|
72
|
|
34
|
38
|
0
|
72
|
|
|
North Carolina
|
15
|
+2)
|
19
|
115
|
|
67
|
48
|
0
|
115
|
|
MAY 13
|
West Virginia
|
5
|
+1)
|
11
|
28
|
|
8
|
20
|
0
|
28
|
|
MAY 20
|
Kentucky
|
8
|
+1)
|
9
|
51
|
|
14
|
37
|
0
|
51
|
|
|
Oregon
|
7
|
+1)
|
13
|
52
|
|
31
|
21
|
0
|
52
|
|
JUN 1
|
Puerto Rico
|
0
|
+1)
|
8
|
55
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
JUN 3
|
Montana
|
3
|
+1)
|
9
|
16
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
South Dakota
|
3
|
+1)
|
8
|
15
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Xxxxxxxx
|
UN
|
0
|
+0)
|
2
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Without
MI & FL
|
TOTAL
|
538
|
+76)
|
796
|
3253
|
|
1659.5
|
1499.5
|
8
|
3167
|
|
With MI
& FL
|
|
|
+81)
|
850
|
3566
|
|
|
|
|
|
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