HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project

People Living with HIV/AIDS (Adults and Children) 2011

Written on April 5th, 2013 by
Categories: HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project

 

http://www.globalhealthfacts.org/data/topic/map.aspx?ind=1&fmt=1&by=Loc

People Living with HIV/AIDS (Adults and Children)

2011

(Go to Table or Notes and Sources below)

 

People Living with HIV/AIDS (Adults and Children)

2011

(Go to Maps above or Notes and Sources below)

Rank Table by:

Rank Country Name Number 
Global 34,000,000
1 South Africa 5,600,000
2 Nigeria 3,400,000
3 Kenya 1,600,000
3 Tanzania (United Rep. of) 1,600,000
4 Mozambique 1,400,000
4 Uganda 1,400,000
5 United States of America 1,300,000
6 Zimbabwe 1,200,000
7 Zambia 970,000
8 Malawi 910,000
9 Ethiopia 790,000
10 China 780,000
11 Cameroon 550,000
12 Brazil 490,000
12 Thailand 490,000
13 Indonesia 380,000
14 Cote d’Ivoire 360,000
15 Lesotho 320,000
16 Botswana 300,000
17 Viet Nam 250,000
18 Angola 230,000
18 Ghana 230,000
18 Ukraine 230,000
19 Myanmar 220,000
20 Chad 210,000
20 Rwanda 210,000
21 Namibia 190,000
21 Swaziland 190,000
22 Mexico 180,000
23 France 160,000
24 Colombia 150,000
24 Italy 150,000
24 South Sudan 150,000
24 Spain 150,000
24 Togo 150,000
25 Central African Republic 130,000
25 Pakistan 130,000
26 Burkina Faso 120,000
26 Haiti 120,000
27 Mali 110,000
28 Venezuela 99,000
29 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 96,000
30 Argentina 95,000
31 United Kingdom 94,000
32 Guinea 85,000
33 Congo 83,000
34 Malaysia 81,000
35 Burundi 80,000
36 Peru 74,000
37 Germany 73,000
38 Canada 71,000
39 Sudan 69,000
40 Guatemala 65,000
40 Niger 65,000
41 Benin 64,000
41 Cambodia 64,000
42 Senegal 53,000
43 Chile 51,000
44 Nepal 49,000
44 Sierra Leone 49,000
45 Portugal 48,000
46 Gabon 46,000
47 Dominican Republic 44,000
48 Ecuador 35,000
48 Poland 35,000
48 Somalia 35,000
49 Madagascar 34,000
50 Honduras 33,000
51 Morocco 32,000
52 Jamaica 30,000
53 Papua New Guinea 28,000
54 Liberia 25,000
54 Netherlands 25,000
55 El Salvador 24,000
55 Guinea-Bissau 24,000
55 Mauritania 24,000
56 Eritrea 23,000
57 Australia 22,000
57 Yemen 22,000
58 Belarus 20,000
58 Belgium 20,000
58 Equatorial Guinea 20,000
58 Switzerland 20,000
59 Kazakhstan 19,000
59 Philippines 19,000
60 Austria 18,000
60 Panama 18,000
61 Bolivia 17,000
62 Romania 16,000
63 Korea (Republic of) 15,000
63 Moldova (Republic of) 15,000
64 Cuba 14,000
64 Gambia 14,000
65 Paraguay 13,000
65 Trinidad and Tobago 13,000
66 Kyrgyzstan 12,000
66 Uruguay 12,000
67 Greece 11,000
67 Tajikistan 11,000
68 Estonia 9,900
69 Egypt 9,500
70 Djibouti 9,200
71 Latvia 9,100
71 Sweden 9,100
72 Costa Rica 8,800
73 Israel 8,500
74 Japan 7,900
75 Ireland 7,800
76 Bangladesh 7,700
77 Nicaragua 7,600
78 Mauritius 7,400
79 Azerbaijan 6,700
80 Bahamas 6,500
81 Guyana 6,200
82 Denmark 6,100
83 Afghanistan 5,800
84 Turkey 5,500
85 Georgia 4,900
86 Belize 4,600
87 Norway 4,500
88 Sri Lanka 4,200
89 Hungary 4,100
90 Bulgaria 3,900
91 Armenia 3,600
92 Serbia 3,500
93 Singapore 3,400
93 Suriname 3,400
94 Cape Verde 3,300
95 Finland 2,900
95 Lebanon 2,900
96 New Zealand 2,600
97 Czech Republic 2,100
98 Tunisia 1,700
99 Lithuania 1,500
100 Barbados 1,400
101 Bhutan 1,300
102 Croatia 1,200
103 Iceland <1,000
103 Luxembourg <1,000
103 Mongolia <1,000
103 Sao Tome and Principe <1,000
103 Slovenia <1,000
104 Comoros <500
104 Fiji <500
104 Malta <500
104 Slovakia <500
105 Maldives <100
106 Russian Federation 730000-1300000
107 Algeria 13000-28000
108 Albania (NA)
108 American Samoa (NA)
108 Andorra (NA)
108 Anguilla (NA)
108 Antigua and Barbuda (NA)
108 Aruba (NA)
108 Bahrain (NA)
108 Bermuda (NA)
108 Bosnia and Herzegovina (NA)
108 Bouvet Island (NA)
108 British Indian Ocean Territory (NA)
108 British Virgin Islands (NA)
108 Brunei Darussalam (NA)
108 Cayman Islands (NA)
108 Christmas Island (NA)
108 Cocos (Keeling Islands) (NA)
108 Congo (Dem. Republic of) (NA)
108 Cook Islands (NA)
108 Cyprus (NA)
108 Dominica (NA)
108 Faeroe Islands (NA)
108 Falkland Islands (Malvinas) (NA)
108 French Guiana (NA)
108 French Polynesia (NA)
108 French Southern Territories and Antarctic Lands (NA)
108 Gibraltar (NA)
108 Greenland (NA)
108 Grenada (NA)
108 Guadeloupe (NA)
108 Guam (NA)
108 Heard Island and McDonald Islands (NA)
108 India (NA)
108 Iraq (NA)
108 Johnston Atoll (NA)
108 Jordan (NA)
108 Kiribati (NA)
108 Korea (Dem. Peo. Rep. of) (NA)
108 Kuwait (NA)
108 Lao People’s Democratic Rep. (NA)
108 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya (NA)
108 Liechtenstein (NA)
108 Macedonia (The former Yugoslav Republic of) (NA)
108 Marshall Islands (NA)
108 Martinique (NA)
108 Mayotte (NA)
108 Micronesia (Federated States of) (NA)
108 Midway (NA)
108 Monaco (NA)
108 Montenegro (NA)
108 Montserrat (NA)
108 Nauru (NA)
108 Netherlands Antilles (NA)
108 New Caledonia (NA)
108 Niue (NA)
108 Norfolk Island (NA)
108 Northern Mariana Islands (NA)
108 Oman (NA)
108 Palau (NA)
108 Pitcairn Island (NA)
108 Puerto Rico (NA)
108 Qatar (NA)
108 Reunion (NA)
108 Saint Helena (NA)
108 Saint Kitts and Nevis (NA)
108 Saint Lucia (NA)
108 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (NA)
108 Samoa (NA)
108 San Marino (NA)
108 Saudi Arabia (NA)
108 Seychelles (NA)
108 Solomon Islands (NA)
108 Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands (NA)
108 Syrian Arab Republic (NA)
108 Timor Leste (NA)
108 Tokelau (NA)
108 Tonga (NA)
108 Turkmenistan (NA)
108 Turks and Caicos Island (NA)
108 Tuvalu (NA)
108 United Arab Emirates (NA)
108 Uzbekistan (NA)
108 Vanuatu (NA)
108 Virgin Islands (U.S.) (NA)
108 Wake Island (NA)
108 Wallis and Futuna Islands (NA)
108 West Bank and Gaza (NA)
108 Western Sahara (NA)

Notes: Data are estimates. For most countries, UNAIDS provides estimates as well as ranges around the estimates that define the boundaries within which the actual numbers lie. For some countries, UNAIDS provides only a range. These data were included above as appropriate.

Definitions: HIV: Human immunodeficiency virus, the virus that causes AIDS. HIV can be transmitted through infected blood, semen, vaginal secretions, breast milk, and during pregnancy or delivery. HIV destroys certain white blood cells called CD4+ T cells. These cells are critical to the normal function of the human immune system, which defends the body against illness. When HIV weakens the immune system, a person is more susceptible to developing a variety of cancers and becoming infected with viruses, bacteria and parasites. The disease has four stages: primary or acute HIV infection, asymptomatic, symptomatic, and advanced HIV disease (AIDS).

AIDS: Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. A disease of the body’s immune system caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). A person who tests positive for HIV is considered to have progressed to AIDS when a laboratory test shows that his or her immune system is severely weakened by the virus or when he or she develops at least one of about 25 different opportunistic infections — diseases that might not affect a person with a normal immune system but that take advantage of damaged immune systems. People who have not had one of these opportunistic infections, but whose immune system is severely damaged, are also considered to have progressed to an AIDS diagnosis.

Sources: UNAIDS, Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic, 2012:http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/campaigns/20121120_globalreport2012/globalreport/.

New HIV Infections are falling dramatically in Africa

Written on January 15th, 2013 by
Categories: HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project

 

THE WILL

 

NEW HIV INFECTIONS ARE FALLING DRAMATICALLY IN AFRICA

14/01/2013 21:22:00 THEWILL
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A LIBERIAN SOLDIER SHOWS OFF HIS JUGGLING SKILLS AT A WORLD AIDS DAY EVENT, “ZERO NEW INFECTIONS”, SPONSORED BY THE JOINT UN PROGRAMME ON AIDS AND HIV (UNAIDS), IN MONROVIA, LIBERIA

Africa is pulling out all the stops in its race to curb the AIDS pandemic by 2015, a deadline set by UN member states. From making anti-retroviral drug therapy (ART) readily available to the masses, to increasing consistent, correct condom use and voluntary medical male circumcision, everything has been tried and tested. And these efforts are paying off, according to the latest report of the Joint UN Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS).

Africa has cut AIDS-related deaths by one third in the past six years, the report says. Even countries with the highest HIV prevalence in the world have seen the number of new HIV infections decline dramatically.
Malawi has witnessed a 73 per cent drop in new HIV infections. Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe follow. South Africa managed to reduce new infections by 41 per cent. Even Swaziland — the country with the highest HIV prevalence in the world — saw new HIV infections drop by 37 per cent.

Meanwhile, in other regions of Africa, Ghana topped the list, followed by Burkina Faso and Djibouti.

Leaders in Africa have been funnelling money into their national AIDS programmes. Last year alone, South Africa invested $1.9 billion from public sources for its national AIDS response. Kenya doubled its domestic investments for AIDS between 2008 and 2010, and Togo did the same between 2007 and 2010.

International assistance has also been stable, with 26 of 33 countries in sub-Saharan Africa relying on donor support for their domestic programmes, Results adds.

The scaled-up response has been most effective in boosting the number of people on ART treatment and reducing the number of children born with HIV. Six African countries (Burundi, Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Togo and Zambia) saw a 40 per cent reduction in the number of children newly infected by the virus between 2009 and 2011. “It is becoming evident that achieving zero new HIV infections in children is possible,” says Michel Sidibé, the UNAIDS executive director. “I am excited that far fewer babies are being born with HIV. We are moving from despair to hope.”

On the other hand, North Africa has not fared so well. The number of people newly infected with HIV each year has risen since 2001, although overall numbers are still relatively low.

On 1 December, World AIDS Day, Mr. Sidibé called on the world to renew its commitment to zero new infections, zero discrimination and zero AIDS-related deaths. At a UN high-level meeting on AIDS in New York in 2011, global leaders agreed to meet the ambitious targets of significantly reducing the sexual transmission of HIV, virtually eliminate mother-to-child HIV transmission and achieve universal access to treatment by 2015. Mr. Sidibé believes that with “political will and follow through,” the world can reach those shared goals.

ONE, a global advocacy group fighting poverty and preventable diseases, begs to differ. The world is not on track to achieve the global AIDS targets, the organization asserts.

In its latest progress report, The Beginning of the End of AIDS? Tracking Global Commitments on AIDS, ONE remarks that anti-retroviral treatment for HIV-positive individuals has been the hallmark of the world’s response to the AIDS pandemic. But, the group warns, only 6.6 million of the 15 million who need the treatment have access to it, and 2.5 million continue to be newly infected every year.

According to the South African advocacy group Section27, such figures prove that the “end of the epidemic is no where near.” Section27 Director Mark Heywood challenges the “rosy picture” painted by UNAIDS. He argues that the “remarkable” gains of recent years have yet to be consolidated and entrenched, notes that people living with HIV/AIDS still need to secure their rights and warns that the global economic recession could redirect money away from AIDS.

UNAIDS maintains that high-income countries have continued to help even as they faced persistent economic problems. The agency admits though that international assistance is still a crucial lifeline for many low income countries.

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, an international grant-making institution, has been instrumental in attracting funds for national programmes. It is currently preparing for its 2013 replenishment meeting. It has already received a donation of $200 million from RED (a division of the ONE campaign) to fight the AIDS epidemic in Africa.

Meanwhile, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), a US government initiative and the largest funder of HIV efforts worldwide, has announced that its future focus will be on prevention, women and girls, as well as on reaching the most at-risk populations.

Together, the Global Fund and PEPFAR are supporting 5.6 million people on ART treatment globally, ONE notes.  There are more than 5 million people on ART treatment in sub-Saharan Africa alone.

Moving forward, experts and policy makers agree that keeping people on treatment is as important as getting them the drugs. UNAIDS warns that adherence to these HIV treatment programmes can fall as people regain better health. The agency cites the example of a treatment centre in Malawi where nearly half the people who began ART are no longer in care five years later.

HIV treatment is for life, UNAIDS emphasizes, and people living with the virus need to take pills every day. It urges African countries to incorporate community support strategies to complement clinical services and to keep down programme management costs and drug prices. Basically, more people need access to treatment to live longer and more productive lives.
Written By Jocelyne Sambira

 

Ruling Could Make Home HIV Tests Commonplace

Written on May 21st, 2012 by
Categories: HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project

 

http://www.laboratoryequipment.com/news-Home-HIV-Tests-May-Have-Unintended-Consequences-052112.aspx?et_cid=2658672&et_rid=54640811&linkid=http%3a%2f%2fwww.laboratoryequipment.com%2fnews-Home-HIV-Tests-May-Have-Unintended-Consequences-052112.aspx

 

Ruling Could Make Home HIV Tests Commonplace

May 21, 2012

052112_HIV
Researcher Alex Carballo-Dieguez demonstrates OraSure’s rapid HIV over the counter test kit for home use. Image: Benjamin Plackett

At the pharmacy, you can buy anything from tea kettles to Tylenol. But what if you could buy a rapid HIV test over the counter and test yourself in the privacy of your own home?

Such a test, which experts say could profoundly change attitudes towards HIV diagnosis and how we go about it, is already being made by Bethlehem, Penn.-based, OraSure Technologies Inc. The test shows results within 20 minutes: one blue line means HIV negative, two blue lines means HIV positive. Some researchers are excited by the prospect, but others worry that American society isn’t ready for testing without counseling. This week, an advisory panel to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has unanimously recommended the test to the FDA, which is expected to issue a final decision later this year, and the product could feasibly be on the market within the next two years.

The technology isn’t especially new. A similar OraSure rapid test has been used in clinics since 2004. HIV-1 and HIV-2 induced antibodies are detected from oral fluid, which is collected with a swab and placed in a vial containing a “developer solution.” The solution aids the flow of the specimen along a test strip. If the sample contains the antibodies, it will react with substances on the test strip to indicate a positive result.

In recent years, HIV testing has become progressively more accessible. The introduction of rapid oral HIV tests in clinics was followed in 2006 by a new set of guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which resulted in an opt-out policy. The CDC recommended that individuals from ages 13 to 64 be tested at least once for HIV in their lifetimes during a routine medical checkup. If patients don’t want the test, they would have to explicitly opt out.

Sixty-five percent of Americans were in favor of this new policy, according to a 2006 survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Alex Carballo-Dieguez, a psychologist who specializes in HIV prevention research at Columbia Univ., conducted research to find out how and if high-risk groups would use the at-home test. He surveyed a cohort of 60 non-monogamous men who have receptive sex with men and don’t use condoms, despite an awareness of the risks.

Eighty percent of the participants say they would use the test by themselves or mutually with a partner if it were available over the counter. Most participants expressed enthusiasm because the technology didn’t interfere with sexual pleasure, the main reason that they shun condoms. Most participants were also aware that a negative result doesn’t provide a 100-percent guarantee because of a two-week period after infection, in which antibodies are not produced and therefore not detected.

Carballo-Dieguez doesn’t anticipate that the test would change the sexual behavior of people that practice safe sex. “If people use condoms, why would they opt for a technology that is less protective?” he says.

Others disagree.

The introduction of the 20-minute OraSure rapid test into clinics has “already been a concern” for its potential to reduce condom use, according to Sean Philpott, a bioethicist at New York Univ. Philpott, however, agrees with Carballo-Dieguez that the test would help individuals who don’t use condoms by “giving them additional information so that they can at least practice sex a little safer.”

Philpott says that the test could help to make HIV testing routine – that is, encourage people who don’t perceive themselves at risk to have routine tests. He thinks that it may provide more testing opportunities for people who would otherwise like to be tested. “I am thinking about situations for men who have sex with men, drug abusers or people who live in rural or conservative areas and don’t feel comfortable talking to their physicians,” he says.

Despite these positive applications, Philpott still harbors reservations. “HIV stigmatization is still pervasive enough that I think you need a clear counseling component,” he says, “I am all for streamlining the counseling process but there are still situations in which individuals have received a positive result and either spun into clinical depression or committed suicide.”

Similar questions were raised in the late 1970s when the first at home pregnancy test was approved for sale, Carballo-Dieguez pointed out. Self-testing for pregnancy, he says, is no longer controversial.

“I think you can draw some parallels,” says Philpott. “On the other hand, pregnancy is not a life-threatening illness. Pregnancy is for many people a very positive thing.”

Philpott believes that today’s society in the U.S. just isn’t quite ready for the test. A campaign to encourage gay men to test themselves ran in New York City during March 2012 with the tag line “testing makes us stronger.” The posters at Atlantic Station in Brooklyn were vandalized with stickers covering the faces of models with the words “God have mercy.”

Even in cosmopolitan New York stigmatization of the condition is still an issue.

He suspects that Europe may be the better place to effectively utilize the test — at first. “In Europe,” he says, “sex isn’t something dirty that you don’t talk about — there’s less stigma”.

Many students in the UK actively seek out HIV testing, even though they don’t believe themselves to have contracted the virus. Vishnu Parameshwaran, a senior at Oxford Univ., is one such example. He says that he gets tested quite frequently because he likes “to have a clean bill of health at all times.”

Parameshwaran would welcome and probably use the test, “For me it would just be a lot easier.”

Apart from intercourse, contaminated needles are a major HIV transmitter, making drug users a high-risk group. “I could see this helping our clients,” says Craig Bosomworth, a drugs counselor at HARCAS, a UK-based charity devoted to help those affected by addictive behavior.

Bosomworth could imagine his clients using the test in combination with counseling, but feels uneasy about handing the test out for his clients to use at their own convenience.

Philpott will likely study the legacy of the test, should it be approved. Carballo-Dieguez is already conducting a follow up study that he hopes to publish in time for the AIDS 2012 conference, which for the first time in 20 years will be held in the U.S. again, thanks to relaxed policies that used to restrict HIV positive people from travelling to the U.S.

Source: Inside Science News Service, Benjamin Plackett

Malnutrition: On a Silent Rampage in Schools in Nigeria

Written on December 28th, 2006 by
Categories: HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project

 

Malnutrition: On a silent rampage in schools in Nigeria

By Emmanuel Edukugho
Thursday, December 30, 2004

Vanguard Newspaper 

Majority of school children lack the food they need, thereby inducing malnutrition, now posing a serious threat to education, particularly in developing countries, including Nigeria. Malnutrition causes poor growth in children, leading to impaired mental development, poor scholastic and intellectual development.

A report by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), describes these effects as the most serious long-term results of malnutrition.

Although several organisations worldwide, governmental and private, have made efforts to combat and stop malnutrition, not much have been achieved in this direction.

Malnutrition is caused by a deficiency in the intake of nutrients by the cells of the body. A combination of two factors can be responsible.

These are: (i) insufficient intake of proteins, calories, vitamins, and minerals, (ii) frequent infections. Sickness like measles, malaria, diarrhea (frequent stooling) and respiratory disorder cause loss of nutrients in the body. They reduce appetite and food intake, contributing invariably to malnutrition.

Children suffer malnutrition most because they are in a period of rapid growth that increases the demand for calories and proteins.

UNICEF said that a deficiency of vitamin A affects over 100 million small children in the world and causes blindness. It also weakens the immune system, making them vulnerable to infections. For children who survive malnutrition, the consequences can follow into adulthood.

“The depletion of human intelligence on such a scale – for reasons that are almost entirely preventable is a profligate, even criminal, waste,” UNICEF stated.

It added that, “more than 3/4 (three quarters) of all the malnutrition-aided deaths are linked not to severe malnutrition but to mild and moderate forms.”

UNICEF submitted in the state of the world’s children thus.

“It is implicated in more than half of all child deaths worldwide-a proportion unmatched by any infectious disease since the black death. Yet, it is not an infectious disease. It ravages extend to the millions of survivors who are left crippled, chronically vulnerable to illness, and intellectually disabled. It imperils women, families and, ultimately the viability of whole societies.”

Malnutrition is linked to a variety of illnesses – from under-nourishment as a result of lack of one or more nutrient – such as Vitamin and mineral deficiencies to obesity and other diet-related diseases. Regarded as by far the most lethal form of malnutrition is Protein – Energy Malnutrition (PEM).

The World Health Organisation called PEM “the silent emergency” whose major victims are children of school age. It declared that PEM “is an accomplice in at least half of the 10.4 million child deaths each year.”

Furthermore, malnutrition is said to cast long shadows, affecting close to 800 million people – 20% of all people in the developing countries. In other words, 1 out of every 8 people in the world suffers from malnutrition.

Ordinarily, malnutrition is the lack of food. But at the centre of it all is poverty, which affects about 80% of Nigerian population, weakening productivity and capacity of children to learn properly in school.

Vanguard Education Weekly investigation showed that recently, the Lagos state government attempted to tackle malnutrition among school children, when it launched a plan to provide free meal for pupils of less-privileged parents who do not enjoy balanced meals in their homes.

The government said it allocated N1 billion for its free meal programme in all its 913 primary schools.

It was part of the school health scheme meant to enhance the nutritional intakes of pupils. The first phase (pilot stage) was to begin with primary one, while pupils of the other classes would follow as government expected assistance from international organisations like, UNICEF and other donor agencies which had shown interest in the scheme.

But the programme seemed not to have taken off the ground, as malnutrition wreaks havoc in the school system. Most children attend classes with empty stomach, leaving their homes with little or no food. The proposed free mid-day meal would have been the saving grace for these undernourished children.

While the Nigerian government has not shown concern for the nutrition of school children in this country, the situation in neighbouring Ghana can be instructive.

The Ghanaian government has just announced a five-year plan to reduce hunger and malnutrition among pupils in schools across that country. An amount of $347.4 million (three hundred and forty-seven million, four hundred thousand dollars) have been earmarked for the programme; which will be in pilot phases. Children will be given one balanced meal a day for five days.

By this, short-term hunger and malnutrition among children will be reduced.

Except in Nigeria, in many other countries, government and private organisations have initiated food supplementation schemes for school children.

Communities can help in stemming the devastating tide of malnutrition by providing mid-day meals in schools, provide nutritional education programmes and safe drinking water supply.

Malnutrition has been identified as a big problem afflicting developing nations, especially school children from poor homes.

According to UNICEF, “a lack of access to good education and correct information is also a cause of malnutrition,” adding: “Without information strategies and better and more accessible education programmes, the awareness, skills and behaviours needed to combat malnutrition cannot be developed.”

Lack of food reduces, in turn, a person’s health and ability to get a better education.

While it has been agreed that there is more than enough food for all, the problem is that food is neither produced nor distributed equitably.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) pointed out that, “all too frequently, the poor in fertile developing countries stand by watching with empty hands – and empty stomachs – while ample harvests and bumper crops are exported for hard cash. Short-term profits for a few, long-term losses for many.”

A recent study by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) showed that the richest fifth of the people on the planet eat 45% of all the meat and fish, the poorest fifth get just 5%. As attested by Encyclopedia Britannica, “the provision of an adequate food supply and nutritional education to all people, however, remains a crucial problem.”

 

 

 

Seropositivity in Nigeria

Written on December 28th, 2006 by
Categories: HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project

 

 

Seroprevalence of HIV1 data for
Low-Risk Populations in

West Africa are given in the
following URL:

 

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/Map6table.html

Current Version: June 2003

  

The data for Nigerian states are given as
follows:

 

 

NIGERIA

STATE

Capital

Seropositivity

 

ABIA
STATE

Umuahia

3.3

 

ABUJA
STATE

Abuja

10.2

 

ADAMAWA
STATE

Yola

4.5

 

AKWA
IBOM
STATE

Uyo

10.7

 

ANAMBRA
STATE

Awka

6.5

 

BAUCHI
STATE

Bauchi

6.8

 

BAYELSA
STATE

Yenagoa

7.2

 

BENUE
STATE

Makurdi

13.5

 

BORNO
STATE

Maiduguri

4.5

 

CROSS

RIVER
STATE

Calabar

8.0

 

DELTA
STATE

Asaba

5.8

 

EBONYI
STATE

Abakaliki

6.2

 

EDO
STATE

Benin-City

5.7

 

EKITI
STATE

Ado-Ekiti

3.2

 

ENUGU
STATE

Enugu

5.2

 

GOMBE
STATE

Gombe

8.2

 

IBADAN (Oyo
State)

Ibadan

21.3

 

IMO
STATE

Owerri

4.3

 

JIGAWA
STATE

Dutse

1.8

 

KADUNA
STATE

Kaduna

5.6

 

KANO
STATE

Kano

3.8

 

KATSINA
STATE

Katsina

3.5

 

KEBBI
STATE

Birnin-Kebbi

4.0

 

KOGI
STATE

Lokoja

5.7

 

KWARA
STATE

Ilorin

4.3

 

LAGOS
STATE

Lagos

3.5

 

NASARAWA
STATE

Lafia

8.1

 

NIGER
STATE

Minna

4.5

 

OGUN
STATE

Abeokuta

3.5

 

ONDO
STATE

Akure

6.7

 

OSUN
STATE

Oshogbo

4.3

 

OYO
STATE

Ibadan

4.2

 

PLATEAU
STATE

Jos

8.5

 

RIVERS
STATE

Port Harcourt

7.7

 

SOKOTO
STATE

Sokoto

2.8

 

TARABA
STATE

Jalingo

6.2

 

YOBE
STATE

Damaturu

3.5

 

ZAMFARA
STATE

Gusau

3.5

 

 

Running News AIDS

Written on December 28th, 2006 by
Categories: HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project

 

LATEST RUNNING NEWS ON HIV/AIDS 

Mandela Says AIDS Led to Death of Son

Health Activists Praise Ex-President’s Openness

By Craig Timberg

Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, January 7, 2005; Page A10

JOHANNESBURG, Jan. 6 — Former South African president Nelson Mandela
announced Thursday that his son, Makgatho Mandela, 54, had died that morning
of illness related to AIDS, and he urged other families to speak openly about
the toll of a disease that has ravaged South Africa but is still widely
regarded as a taboo topic.

Mandela, though 86 and increasingly frail, has mounted a highly public
crusade against AIDS in the past several years. He called reporters to his
suburban home to make the announcement just hours after Makgatho, a lawyer and
father of four, died at a nearby hospital.

“My son has died of AIDS,” Mandela said, ending weeks of
speculation that Makgatho had the disease. He compared his son’s illness to
his own struggles with tuberculosis and prostate cancer, and he asked all
South Africans to treat AIDS as an “ordinary” disease rather than a curse for
which “people will go to hell and not to heaven.” His only other son died in a
car accident in 1969.

Mandela, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his battle to end apartheid,
has acknowledged doing too little to combat AIDS during his presidency from
1994 to 1999. Since then, however, he has repeatedly urged people to seek
testing and treatment and also promised to be open if any member of his family
died because of AIDS.

“That is the only way of making an ordinary illness ordinary instead of
following those who are not well-informed,” he said Thursday. More than 5
million South Africans are infected with the AIDS virus, HIV — the largest
number of cases in a single country — and at least 1,000 a day die from
complications of AIDS, according to the United Nations. Like Mandela, other
African leaders have also become increasingly forthright about the need to
combat AIDS despite cultural resistance to public discussions of the disease.

However, the country’s current president, Thabo Mbeki, rarely talks
about AIDS and has done little to promote countermeasures. He became embroiled
in controversy several years ago for suggesting that factors other than HIV
cause AIDS. After being reelected in April, he mentioned the disease only in
passing during his inauguration.

A spokesman for the Mandela family, Isaac Amuah, said in a phone
interview that the immediate cause of Makgatho’s death was complications from
a gallbladder operation. But he said that AIDS was a contributing factor and
that Mandela was determined to portray the death as resulting from AIDS to
demystify the disease.

Mandela’s announcement was immediately applauded by AIDS activists and
political leaders in a country where the disease is widely stigmatized. Shame
and fear remain major barriers to treating AIDS, even where effective drugs
are available, according to doctors and researchers.

Death announcements in newspapers routinely refer to someone having
suffered from “a lengthy illness” or pneumonia, instead of disclosing that a
person had AIDS. Victims of AIDS are sometimes said to be cursed by
witchcraft, and in some communities they are shunned.

“For senior people to be brave enough to involve their entire families
is the only way to beat stigma,” said Francois Venter, an AIDS physician in
Johannesburg .

African leaders have shown increasing willingness to talk about AIDS and
its toll on their families. A onetime political rival of Mandela’s, Mangosuthu
Buthelezi, has spoken publicly about the deaths of two of his children from
AIDS. Zimbabwe’s president, Robert Mugabe, revealed an AIDS death in his
family. And Zambia’s former president, Kenneth Kaunda, has spoken openly of
the death of his son from an AIDS-related illness in 1986.

The eagerness of Mandela and others to discuss the disease in recent
years has made Mbeki’s silence all the more pronounced, although on Thursday
Mandela declined to answer a reporter’s question about Mbeki’s handling of
AIDS.

“There’s an enormous contrast,” said Zackie Achmat of the Treatment
Action Campaign, South Africa’s most prominent AIDS activist group. Of Mbeki’s
reluctance to confront the issue, Achmat added, “It adds to the stigma. . . .
It denies a name to the illness of people.”

The government’s slow response to the spread of HIV-AIDS has sparked
widespread criticism among health experts. Until last year, the public health
system did not provide antiretroviral drugs, which can reverse the
deterioration caused by AIDS. Antiretrovirals are gradually becoming
available, but most victims wait to seek treatment until they are too sick to
benefit from them.

Makgatho, whose wife, Zondi, died of pneumonia in 2003, had been
receiving antiretroviral treatment for more than a year, said Amuah, his
brother-in-law. The medicine appeared to restore Makgatho to full health, but
he deteriorated abruptly in the days after a gallbladder operation on Nov. 30.
Mandela, who learned of his son’s AIDS diagnosis last year, canceled several
public events to be at his bedside in recent weeks.

“He had other medical problems,” Amuah said. But AIDS was “a
contributing factor” in his death. “We cannot deny that.”

Makgatho was one of two sons of Mandela and his first wife, Evelyn. The
other son, Madiba Thembekile, died in a car crash in 1969 while his father was
in prison, serving a sentence that would stretch to 27 years for his role as a
leader of the African National Congress.

Mandela is also the father of four daughters, one of whom died as an
infant.

Makgatho kept a relatively low profile as the eldest son of an
international icon. Mandela said little about his personal relationship with
his son at the news conference, but in his autobiography, “Long Walk to
Freedom,” Mandela speaks affectionately about discussing politics with his son
and explaining the nature of racial oppression.

Also at the news conference was Makgatho’s son Mandla, who described his
father as strong and loving. “We were very proud to have a man such as our
father to father us,” he said. “He has been the pillar of our strength.”

 

Research
Flawed on Key AIDS Medicine
Bush Had
Planned Its Use in Africa

 

By John Solomon

Associated Press
Tuesday, December 14, 2004; Page A14

Weeks before President Bush announced a plan to
protect African babies from AIDS, top U.S. health officials were warned that
research on the key drug was flawed and may have underreported thousands of
severe reactions, including deaths, government documents show.

The 2002 warnings about the drug, nevirapine, were serious enough to
suspend testing for more than a year, let Uganda’s government know of the
dangers and prompt the drug’s maker to pull its request for permission to use
the medicine to protect newborns in the United States.

But the National Institutes of Health, the
government’s premier health research agency, chose not to inform the White House
as it scrambled to keep its experts’ concerns from scuttling the use of
nevirapine in Africa as a cheap solution, according to documents obtained by the
Associated Press.

“Everyone recognized the enormity that this decision could have on the
worldwide use of nevirapine to interrupt mother-baby transmission,” NIH’s chief
of AIDS research, Edmund C. Tramont, reported March 14, 2002, to his boss,
Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
Diseases.

The documents show that Tramont and other NIH officials dismissed problems
with the nevirapine research in Uganda as overblown and were slow to report
concerns to the Food and Drug Administration.

NIH’s nevirapine research in Uganda was so riddled with sloppy
record-keeping that NIH investigators could not be sure from patient records
which mothers got the drug. Instead, they had to use blood samples to confirm
doses, the documents show.

Less than a month after Bush announced a $500 million plan to push
nevirapine across Africa to slow the AIDS epidemic, the Department of Health and
Human Services sent a nine-page letter to Ugandan officials identifying
violations of federal patient-protection rules by NIH’s research.

Nevertheless, NIH officials said they remain confident after re-reviewing
the Uganda study and other research that nevirapine can be used safely in single
doses by African mothers and children to prevent HIV transmissions during birth.
But they acknowledged their Uganda research failed to meet required U.S.
standards.

As a result, NIH recently asked the National Academy of Sciences to
investigate its science in the case and has spent millions in the past two years
improving its safety monitoring and record-keeping.

One lesson derived from a closer review of the Uganda research is that
even single doses of nevirapine can create instant resistance, meaning patients
may not be able to use the drug or others in its class again when their AIDS
worsens, Lane said.

Lane said NIH officials were aware in spring 2002 about the impending
White House announcement on nevirapine but did not tell presidential aides of
the problems because they were confident, even before reviewing the Uganda
research, that the underlying science was solid.

The White House — though unaware of the NIH concerns — also remains
confident in Bush’s $500 million plan in 2002 to send nevirapine to Africa. Bush
approved $2.9 billion for global AIDS fighting next year.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) has asked
the Justice Department to investigate NIH’s conduct. In a letter released
yesterday, Grassley said he was compelled to do so by “the serious nature of
these allegations and the grave implications if the allegations have merit.”

HIV Increasing Faster Among Women Than Men,
Report Finds

By David Brown

Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, November 24, 2004; Page A03

The epidemic of human immunodeficiency virus infection is growing more
rapidly in women than in men in almost every part of the world, according to a
new report.

The “feminization” of AIDS appears to reflect a maturing of the
epidemic, suggest the authors of the annual AIDS update prepared by the United
Nations, the World Health Organization and the World Bank. More and more
seemingly low-risk women, many of them married, are being infected by men who
acquired the virus through high-risk behavior years ago.

The trend is most advanced in sub-Saharan Africa,
where the AIDS epidemic began and home to more than half the world’s
HIV-infected population. Women there now make up 57 percent of people living
with the virus.

From 2002 to 2004, the percentage of infected women rose or stayed the
same in all regions.

“This is an emerging pattern. . . . This has profound implications,” said
Peter Piot, a Belgian physician and epidemiologist who heads UNAIDS. “We have to
put women at the heart of the response to AIDS if we want to stop this
epidemic.”

The evolving risk to women is a main theme in the 87-page report that
paints a mosaic portrait of the global AIDS epidemic.

In all, 39.4 million people are infected with HIV now, up from 37.8
million last year. About 3.1 million died of AIDS-related causes in 2004, out of
about 55 million deaths from all causes worldwide.

About 25.4 million people in sub-Saharan Africa are infected, about 7.4
percent of all adults. The Caribbean has the next-highest prevalence, with
440,000 people infected, 2.3 percent of all adults. The prevalence is below 1
percent in both China and India, but the epidemic in those areas is expanding
and could become explosive.

The growing proportion of infected women reflects the cumulative effect of
many risks. They include the fact that women and, in particular, teenage girls,
are more physiologically vulnerable than men; the inability of many women to
require their partners to use condoms; the infidelity of husbands and the
high-risk behavior of other male partners; the exploitation of young women by
older men, especially in southern Africa; and rape and other forms of sexual
coercion.

In South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, women ages 15 to 24 are three to six
times as likely to become infected as young men. In the Caribbean, the risk for
young women is twice that of men.

Marriage is no protection against infection –
and in some places appears to increase the risk.

In India, where about 5.1 million are infected, women account for
one-quarter of new HIV cases. Among those who test positive at prenatal clinics,
90 percent say they are in long-term, monogamous relationships. In a study of
young women in Kisumu, Kenya, and Ndola, Zambia, married teenage girls were more
likely to be infected than unmarried, sexually active ones.

African Americans now account for 72 percent of
infections among women in the United States. A recent study of a low-income
section of New York found that women were twice as likely to be infected by a
husband or long-term lover as by a casual sex partner.

In some places, however, the plight of women is improving, according to
the report, which draws on national reports and dozens of epidemiological
surveys.

For example, the percentage of infected women at prenatal clinics in
Uganda and Kenya fell from 13 percent in 1998 to about 9 percent in 2002. At
clinics in Ethiopia, it dropped from 14 percent to 12 percent. While the reason
for that trend is not certain — and probably reflects the cumulative effect of
many prevention messages — it appears to be real.

“It cannot be a burning out of populations at high risk because it is
really happening,” Piot said in a teleconference yesterday.

UNAIDS and WHO are gathering data on who is receiving access to AIDS drugs
as life-extending antiretroviral therapy is finally reaching people in poor
countries. Preliminary evidence suggests that women are getting drugs less often
than men are.

Piot said he was recently at an AIDS clinic in the Ethiopian capital of
Addis Ababa. One-third of the patients were women, even though they account for
half of HIV-infected Ethiopians. There is a small charge for treatment, and many
women either do not have the money or cannot get it from their husbands, he
said.

Karen Stanecki, a biostatistician who helped prepare the report, said the
French medical organization Doctors Without Borders has a higher percentage of
women in its treatment programs because they are free.

“But if you look at centers that have fee-for-service, even when it is
minimal, you immediately see more men,” she said. “It’s a real issue in terms of
getting women into treatment.”

Piot said that to fully address the AIDS epidemic, societies must address
such issues as the laws governing property ownership and inheritance by women,
as well as sexual norms under which older men believe it is acceptable to have
sex with teenage girls in exchange for buying them school uniforms.

Microbicides — substances that can kill HIV during intercourse and that a
woman could use without a partner’s knowledge — will also be essential, he
said. Three types are now undergoing final testing in humans.

The report noted that “there has been a sea change” in the amount of money
spent on AIDS treatment and prevention in the developing world. In 2001, it was
$2.1 billion. This year, it will be $6.1 billion — half of it raised by
developing nations and the rest provided by donors.

Multivitamins Slow AIDS Effect in Study

African Patients Had Deficient Diets

By David Brown
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, July 1, 2004; Page A03

People infected with the AIDS virus who take multivitamins every day have
a slightly slower progression of their illness, researchers are reporting today.

The findings will be most useful in the
developing world, where an effort is underway to treat millions of HIV-infected
people and vitamins could be an easily implemented first step.

The effect is not dramatic but is probably enough to warrant a
recommendation that people infected with HIV take vitamins if their diet is
potentially deficient, some experts said.

Supplements “might buy time to allow people to go longer before they
develop symptoms that require antiretroviral treatment,” said Lynne Mofenson,
chief of AIDS activities at the National Institute of Child Health and Human
Development. The institute paid for the study, whose results appear in today’s
New England Journal of Medicine.

The beneficial vitamins were in the B family, as well as vitamins C and E.
Curiously, vitamin A — which has huge health benefits in undernourished
children — was of no help, and was possibly harmful, in HIV-infected adults.

The new information comes from a study in the east African nation of
Tanzania that began in 1995. About 1,000 pregnant women who were infected with
HIV agreed to participate in an experiment to determine whether vitamin
supplements could reduce mother-to-child transmission of the virus. Pregnancy
increases the body’s demand for vitamins, and many of the women were marginally
nourished to begin with.

They were randomly assigned to take vitamin A, multivitamins with vitamin
A, multivitamins alone or a placebo. The vitamin doses were six to 10 times the
U.S. government’s recommended daily dietary intake.

The study found that multivitamins alone decreased by about 40 percent a
baby’s chance of dying soon after birth — mostly by reducing prematurity and
low birth weight — but the multivitamins did not cut the chance of acquiring
HIV during birth or through breast-feeding. Vitamin A, however, increased the
risk of acquiring HIV, and its use in the study was stopped when this became
clear. Those findings were reported several years ago.

The women in the study continued taking supplements after they delivered
and were observed until the summer of 2003 — an average of about six years for
the survivors.

Over the whole period, 25 percent of the women taking multivitamins
progressed to late-stage AIDS or died, compared with 31 percent of those taking
the placebo. This means that for every 100 women taking multivitamins for six
years, the lives or health of six would have been preserved, compared with 100
women not taking vitamins.

Those numbers, however, do not fully reflect the benefit of multivitamins,
said Wafaie W. Fawzi, a researcher at the Harvard School of Public Health, who
headed the study.

For example, supplements (minus vitamin A) reduced a woman’s risk of
progressing to moderate AIDS, or of developing oral ulcers and painful
swallowing, by 50 percent. Supplements raised a person’s CD4-cell count — a key
measure of immune status — by 48 cells per milliliter of blood, and slightly
lowered the amount of HIV circulating in the blood.

In all, the effects of multivitamins were comparable to what was achieved
by taking AZT alone in studies done during the 1980s when that was the only
antiretroviral drug available.

It is not yet known whether multivitamins have an additional benefit for
people already on optimal three-drug therapy, or whether multivitamins are
beneficial in populations in which there is little nutritional deficiency.

Rian Malan: AIDS Figures Appear to Be Exaggerated

Written on December 28th, 2006 by
Categories: HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project

This is an essay in The Spectator� that says that AIDS figures may be exaggerated “The headline figures are horrible: almost 30 million Africans have HIV/Aids. But, says Rian Malan, the figures are computer-generated estimates and they� appear grotesquely exaggerated when set against population statistics.”

December 2004

Cape Town

It was the eve of Aids Day here. Rock stars like Bono and Bob Geldof were jetting in for a fundraising concert with Nelson Mandela, and the airwaves were full of dark talk about megadeath and the armies of feral orphans who would surely ransack South Africa�s cities in 2017 unless funds were made available to take care of them. My neighbour came up the garden path with a press cutting. “Read this,”� said Capt. David Price, ex-Royal Air Force flyboy. “Bloody awful.”

It was an article from The Spectator describing the bizarre sex practices that contribute to HIV’s rampage across the continent. “One in five of us here in Zambia is HIV positive,” said the report. “In 1993 our neighbour Botswana had an estimated population of 1.4 million. Today that figure is under a million and heading downwards. Doom merchants predict that Botswana may soon become the first nation in modern times literally to die out. This is Aids in Africa.”

Really? Botswana has just concluded a census that shows population growing at about 2.7 per cent a year, in spite of what is usually described as the worst� Aids problem on the planet. Total population has risen to 1.7 million in just a decade. If anything, Botswana is experiencing a minor population explosion.

There is similar bad news for the doom sayers in Tanzania�s new census, which� shows population growing at 2.9 per cent a year. Professional pessimists will be particularly discomforted by developments in the swamplands west of Lake� Victoria, where HIV first emerged, and where the depopulated villages of popular mythology are supposedly located. Here, in the district of Kagera, population grew at 2.7 per cent a year before 1988, only to accelerate to 3.1 per cent even as the Aids epidemic was supposedly peaking. Uganda’s latest census tells a broadly similar story, as does South Africa’s.

Some might think it good news that the impact of Aids is less devastating than most laymen imagine, but they are wrong. In Africa, the only good news about Aids is bad news, and anyone who tells you otherwise is branded a moral leper, bent on sowing confusion and derailing 100,000 worthy fundraising drives. I know this, because several years ago I acquired what was generally regarded as a leprous obsession with the dumbfounding Aids numbers in my daily papers. They told me that Aids had claimed 250,000 South African lives in 1999, and I kept saying, this can’t possibly be true. What followed was very ugly “ruined dinner parties, broken friendships, ridicule from those who knew better, bitter fights with my wife. After a year or so, she put her foot down. Choose, she said. Aids or me. So I dropped the subject, put my papers in the garage, and kept my mouth shut.

As I write, madam is standing behind me with hands on hips, hugely irked by this reversion to bad habits. But looking around, it seems to me that Aids fever is nearing the danger level, and that some calming thoughts are called for. Bear with me while I explain.

We all know, thanks to Mark Twain, that statistics are often the lowest form of lie, but when it comes to HIV/Aids, we suspend all scepticism. Why? Aids is the most political disease ever. We have been fighting about it since the day it was identified. The key battleground is public perception, and the most deadly weapon is the estimate. When the virus first emerged, I was living in America, where HIV incidence was estimated to be doubling every year or so. Every time I turned on the TV, Madonna popped up to warn me that “Aids is an equal-opportunity killer”, poised to break out of the drug and gay subcultures and slaughter heterosexuals. In 1985, a science journal estimated that 1.7 million Americans were already infected, with “three to five million” soon likely to follow suit. Oprah Winfrey told the nation that by 1990 “one in five heterosexuals will be dead of Aids”.

We now know that these estimates were vastly and indeed deliberately� exaggerated, but they achieved the desired end: Aids was catapulted to the top of the West’s spending agenda, and the estimators turned their attention� elsewhere. India’s epidemic was likened to “a volcanowaiting to explode”.� Africa faced “a tidal wave of death”. By 1992 they were estimating that “Aids could clear the whole planet”.

Who were they, these estimators? For the most part, they worked in Geneva for WHO or UNAIDS, using a computer simulator called Epimodel. Every year, all over Africa, blood would be taken from a small sample of pregnant women and screened for signs of HIV infection. The results would be programmed into Epimodel, which transmuted them into estimates. If so many women were infected, it followed that a similar proportion of their husbands and lovers must be infected, too. These numbers would be extrapolated out into the general� population, enabling the computer modellers to arrive at seemingly precise� tallies of the doomed, the dying and the orphans left behind.

Because Africa is disorganised and, in some parts, unknowable, we had little choice other than to accept these projections. ( We� always expect the worst of Africa anyway.) Reporting on Aids in Africa became a quest for anecdotes to support Geneva’s estimates, and the estimates grew ever more terrible: 9.6 million cumulative Aids deaths by 1997, rising to 17 million three years later.

Or so we were told. When I visited the worst affected parts of Tanzania and� Uganda in 2001, I was overwhelmed with stories about the horrors of what locals� called “Slims”, but statistical corroboration was hard to come by. According to� government census bureaux, death rates in these areas had been in decline since� the second world war. Aids-era mortality studies yielded some of the lowest� overall death rates ever measured. Populations seemed to have exploded even as the epidemic was peaking.

Ask Aids experts about this, and they say, this is Africa, chaos reigns, the historical data is too uncertain to make valid comparisons. But these same experts will tell you that South Africa is vastly different: “The only country in sub-Saharan Africa where sufficient deaths are routinely registered to attempt to produce national estimates of mortality,” says Professor Ian Timaeus of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. According to Timaeus, upwards of 80 per cent of deaths are registered here, which makes us unique: the only corner of Africa where it is possible to judge computer-generated Aids estimates against objective reality.

In the year 2000, Timaeus joined a team of South African researchers bent on eliminating all doubts about the magnitude of Aids’ impact on South African mortality. Sponsored by the Medical Research Council, the team�s mission was to validate (for the first time ever) the output of Aids computer models against actual death registration in an African setting. Towards this end, the MRC team was granted privileged access to death reports as they streamed into Pretoria. The first results became available in 2001, and they ran thus: 339,000 adult deaths in 1998, 375,000 in 1999 and 410,000 in 2000.

This was grimly consistent with predictions of rising mortality, but the scale was problematic. Epimodel estimated 250,000 Aids deaths in 1999, but there were only 375,000 adult deaths in total that year � far too few to accommodate the UN’s claims on behalf of the HIV virus. In short, Epimodel had failed its reality check. It was quietly shelved in favour of a more sophisticated local model, ASSA 600, which yielded a “more realistic” death toll from Aids of 143,000 for the calendar year 1999.

At this level, Aids deaths were about 40 per cent of the total � still a bit high, considering there were only 232,000 deaths left to distribute among all other causes. The MRC team solved the problem by stating that deaths from ordinary disease had declined at the cumulatively massive rate of nearly 3 per cent per annum since 1985. This seemed very odd. How could deaths decrease in the face of new cholera and malaria epidemics, mounting poverty, the widespread emergence of drug-resistant killer microbes, and a state health system reported to be in “terminal decline”?

But anyway, these researchers were experts, and their tinkering achieved the� desired end: modelled Aids deaths and real deaths were reconciled, the books balanced, truth revealed. The fruit of the MRC’s ground-breaking labour was published in June 2001, and my hash appeared to have been settled. To be sure, I carped about curious adjustments and overall magnitude, but fell silent in the face of graphs showing huge changes in the pattern of death, with more and more people dying at sexually active ages. “How can you argue with this?” cried� my wife, eyes flashing angrily. I couldn’t. I put my Aids papers in the garage and ate my hat.

But I couldn’t help sneaking the odd look at science websites to see how the drama was developing. Towards the end of 2001, the vaunted ASSA 600 model was replaced by ASSA 2000, which produced estimates even lower than its predecessor: for the calendar year 1999, only 92,000 Aids deaths in total. This was just more than a third of the original UN figure, but no matter; the boffins claimed ASSA 2000 was so accurate that further reference to actual death reports “will be of limited usefulness”. A bit eerie, I thought, being told that virtual reality was about to render the real thing superfluous, but if these experts said the new model was infallible, it surely was infallible.

Only it wasn’t. Last December ASSA 2000 was retired, too. A note on the MRC website explained that modelling was an inexact science, and that “the number of people dying of Aids has only now started to increase”. Furthermore, said the MRC, there was a new model in the works, one that would “probably” produce estimates “about 10 per cent lower” than those presently on the table. The exercise was not strictly valid, but I persuaded my scientist pal Rodney Richards to run the revised data on his own simulator and see what he came up with for 1999. The answer, very crudely, was an Aids death toll somewhere around 65,000 � a far cry indeed from the 250,000
initially put forth by UNAIDS.

The wife has just read this, and she is not impressed. “It �s obscene,” she says. “You�re treating this as if it�s just a computer game. People are dying out there.”

Well, yes. I concede that. People are dying, but this doesn’t spare us from the fact that Aids in Africa is indeed something of a computer game. When you read� that 29.4 million Africans are “living with HIV/Aids”, it doesn’t mean that millions of living people have been tested. It means that modellers assume that 29.4 million Africans are linked via enormously complicated mathematical and sexual networks to one of those women who tested HIV positive in those annual pregnancy-clinic surveys. Modellers are the first to admit that this exercise is subject to uncertainties and large margins of error. Larger than expected, in some cases.

A year or so back, modellers produced estimates that portrayed South African universities as crucibles of rampant HIV infection, with one in four� undergraduates doomed to die within ten years. Prevalence shifted according to� racial composition and region, with Kwazulu-Natalinstitutions worst affected� and Rand Afrikaans University (still 70 per cent white) coming in at 9.5 per cent. Real-life tests on a random sample of 1,188 RAU students rendered a startlingly different conclusion: on campus prevalence was 1.1 per cent, barely a ninth of the modelled figure. “Doubt is cast on present estimates,” said the RAU report, �and further research is strongly advocated.”

A similar anomaly emerged when South Africa�s major banks ran HIV tests on 29,000 staff earlier this year. A modelling exercise put HIV prevalence as high as 12 per cent; real-life tests produced a figure closer to 3 per cent. Elsewhere, actuaries are scratching their heads over a puzzling lack of interest in programs set up by medical-insurance companies to handle an anticipated flood of middle-class HIV cases. Old Mutual, the insurance giant, estimates that as many as 570,000 people are eligible, but only 22,500 have thus far signed up.

In Grahamstown, district surgeon Dr Stuart Dyer is contemplating an equally� perplexing dearth of HIV cases in the local jail. “Sexually transmitted diseases are common in the prison where I work,”� he wrote to the Lancet, “and all prisoners who have any such disease are tested for HIV. Prisoners with any� other illnesses that do not resolve rapidly (within one to two weeks) are also tested for HIV. As a result, a large number of HIV tests are done every week. This prison, which holds 550 inmates and is always full or overfull, has an HIV infection rate of 2 to 4 per cent and has had only two deaths from Aids in the seven years I have been working there.� Dyer goes on to express a dim view of statistics that give the impression that “the whole of South Africa will be depopulated within 24 months�, and concludes by stating, “HIV infection in SA prisons is currently 2.3 per cent.” According to the newspapers, it should be closer to 60 per cent.

On the face of it, these developments suggest that miracles are happening in South Africa, unreported by anyone save a brave little magazine called Noseweek. If the anomalies described above are typical, computer models are seriously overstating HIV prevalence. A similar picture emerges on the national level, where our estimated annual Aids death toll has halved since we eased UNAIDS out of the picture, with further reductions likely when the new MRC model appears. Could the same thing be happening in the rest of Africa?

Most estimates for countries north of the Limpopo are issued by UNAIDS, using methods similar to those discredited here in South Africa. According to Paul Bennell, a health- policy analyst associated with Sussex University�s Institute for Development Studies, there is an “extraordinary” lack of evidence from other sources. “Most countries do not even collect data on deaths,” he writes. “There is virtually no population-based survey data in most high-prevalence countries.”

Bennell was able, however, to gather information about Africa’s schoolteachers,� usually described as a high-risk HIV group on account of their steady income, which enables them to drink and party more than others. Last year the World Bank claimed that Aids was killing Africa’s teachers “faster than they can be replaced”. The BBC reported that “one in seven” Malawian teachers would die in 2002 alone.

Bennell looked at the available evidence and found actual teacher mortality to be “much lower than expected”. In Malawi, for instance, the all-causes death� rate among schoolteachers was under 3 per cent, not over 14 per cent. In Botswana, it was about three times lower than computer-generated estimates. In Zimbabwe, it was four times lower. Bennell believes that Aids continues to present a serious threat to educators, but concludes that “overall impact will� not be as catastrophic as suggested”. What’s more, teacher deaths appear to be declining in six of the eight countries he has studied closely. “This is quite unexpected,” he remarks, “and suggests that, in terms of teacher deaths, the worst may be over.”

In the past year or so, similar mutterings have been heard throughout southern Africa � the epidemic is levelling off or even declining in the worst-affected countries. UNAIDS has been at great pains to rebut such ideas, describing them as “dangerous myths”, even though the data on UNAIDS’ own website shows they are nothing of the sort.”The epidemic is not growing in m st countries,” insists Bennell. “HIV prevalence is not increasing as is usually stated or implied.”

Bennell raises an interesting point here. Why would UNAIDS and its massive alliance of pharmaceutical companies, NGOs, scientists and charities insist that the epidemic is worsening if it isn’t? A possible explanation comes from New York physician Joe Sonnabend, one of the pioneers of Aids research. Sonnabend was working in a New York clap clinic when the syndrome first appeared, and went on to found the American Foundation for Aids Research, only to quit in protest when colleagues started exaggerating the threat of a generalised pandemic with a view to increasing Aids” visibility and adding urgency to their grant applications. The Aids establishment, says Sonnabend, is extremely skilled at “the manipulation of fear for advancement in terms of money and power”.

With such thoughts in the back of my mind, South Africa�s Aids Day “celebrations” cast me into a deeply leprous mood. Please don’t get me wrong here. I believe that Aids is a real problem in Africa. Governments and sober medical professionals should be heeded when they express deep concerns about it. But there are breeds of Aids activist and Aids journalist who sound hysterical to me. On Aids Day, they came forth like loonies drawn by a full moon, chanting that Aids was getting worse and worse, “spinning out of control”, crippling economies, causing famines, killing millions, contributing� to the oppression of women, and “undermining democracy” by sapping the will of� the poor to resist dictators.

To hear them talk, Aids is the only problem in Africa, and the only solution is to continue the agitprop until free access to Aids drugs is defined as a “basic human right” for everyone. They are saying, in effect, that because Mr Mhlangu of rural Zambia has a disease they find more compelling than any other, someone must spend upwards of $400 a year to provide Mr Mhlangu with life-extending Aids medication � a noble idea, on its face, but completely demented when you consider that Mr Mhlangu’s neighbours are likely to be dying in much larger numbers of diseases that could be cured for a few cents if medicines were only available. About 350 million Africans � nearly half the population � get malaria every year, but malaria medication is not a basic human right. Two million get TB, but last time I checked, spending on Aids research exceeded spending on TB by a crushing factor of 90 to one. As for pneumonia, cancer, dysentery or diabetes, let them take aspirin, or grub in the bush for medicinal herbs.

I think it is time to start questioning some of the claims made by the Aids lobby. Their certainties are so fanatical, the powers they claim so far-reaching. Their authority is ultimately derived from computer-generated estimates, which they wield like weapons, overwhelming any resistance with dumbfounding atom bombs of hypothetical human misery. Give them their head, and they will commandeer all resources to fight just one disease. Who knows, they may defeat Aids, but what if we wake up five years hence to discover that the problem has been blown up out of all proportion by unsound estimates, causing upwards of $20 billion to be wasted?

 

 

Restocked ARV Nigeria

Written on December 28th, 2006 by
Categories: HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project

 

Lagos NIGERIA

IRIN

Restocked ARV rollout
offers Nigerians some hope
19 December
2004

As Nigeria, faced with one of
the world’s largest HIV-positive populations, expands its subsidised
antiretroviral (ARV) programme, concern is mounting about how funds are being
spent.

Two years ago Nigeria launched what, at the time, was a ground-breaking
initiative to provide ARV drugs to 15 000 people living with HIV at less than
10% of the market price.

But a year later the project ran into difficulties when depleted drug stocks
were not replenished and people receiving treatment were given either expired
drugs or none at all.

While the 50 treatment centres across Nigeria have since been restocked and the
scheme appears to be running smoothly again, fears of similar trip-ups remain
strong among people on the treatment programme.

“It is commendable that the government is expanding the treatment programme,”
said Sola Odumosu, an HIV/Aids activist living with the virus. “But I just hope
they have it all figured out, so that we don’t run into scarcities any more.”

Aids has spread steadily in Nigeria. Less than two percent of the population
were infected with the HI virus in 1991, but that has risen to more than five
percent of the country’s 126 million people today.

Babatunde Oshotimehin, chairman of the National Action Committee on Aids (Naca),
said 100 000 people would be enrolled next year in a government scheme providing
the ARV drugs that help to prolong life. That represents a six-fold increase on
the present number of beneficiaries.

The number of government-run Aids counselling, testing and treatment centres
would double from 50 to 100 in 2005, while a NACA awareness campaign targets 20
to 29 year-olds, who have the country’s highest HIV prevalence rate at 5,6%,
Oshotimehin noted.

With more than six million people infected in Nigeria, health experts fear a
three-fold increase in a few years that could cause severe harm to the country’s
economic and social development.

Some signs of hope have emerged from the last two national Aids surveys, which
showed a drop in the HIV prevalence rate from 5,8% in 2002 to 5% in 2002.

The government is hoping to build on that with a two-pronged approach of
offering help to those infected with the virus, while curbing the rate at which
the virus is spreading, Oshotimehim said.

The drive to expand Aids control activities is being funded largely by a
$150-million grant from the United States and a $110-million soft loan from the
World Bank.

A World Bank official in Washington said that $16-million of the loan had been
drawn down so far. The Bank’s programme in Nigeria had recently been entirely
restructured to allow the purchase of ARVs in all of Nigeria’s 36 states, he
added.

The official pointed out that the World Bank loan, denominated in Special
Drawing Rights (SDRs) was originally worth just $90-million, but the dollar’s
sharp fall against the world’s other main currencies had pushed up its value in
dollar terms by $20-million.

The Nigerian government is also expecting $150-million from the US government’s
Emergency Plan for Aids Relief.

“We hope to educate more people, treat more people and generally work to reduce
the rate of infection,” Oshotimehin told reporters.

More than 700 non-governmental organisations, including faith-based groups,
professional associations and networks of people living with HIV, have been
enlisted to work with the government to bring a message of care and prevention
to the country.

UN agencies, such as the World Health Organisation and the UN Children’s Fund,
are also helping to influence positive behaviour changes among Nigerians
regarding HIV/Aids.

An HIV/Aids curriculum for primary and junior secondary schools that is being
taught in some schools will be implemented more widely.

Naca is counting on judicious use of the funds from the World Bank and the
United States to sustain its campaign to roll back the Aids pandemic.

But while Oshotimehin expects the foreign aid money to be used wisely, some Aids
activists are less hopeful.

Nsikak Ekpe, president of Aids Alliance Nigeria, an activist group for people
living with Aids, has expressed fears that many of Nigeria’s states were
spending their own share of the funds on luxury items, such as flashy cars and
big offices, rather than care, support and training aimed at developing a local
capacity to deal with the disease.

“The antiretroviral programme in Nigeria is the most ambitious you can get
anywhere,” said Ekpe. “The only problem is that we have found out that most
state governments are playing with the funds and not using them well.”

In several states, Ekpe said, the donor money had been used to procure expensive
four-wheel drive cars and furnish offices. “This money is for the HIV/Aids
programme, and I don’t think that simply means buying jeeps and other expensive
goods.”

But the World Bank again was reassuring. Nigerian states receiving loans first
have to lay out plans, which are approved by the state and national Aids
committees as well as World Bank experts, the official in Washington said.

“Buying cars and furniture is what people always do first,” he said. “But we
have seen several of the states start doing some very encouraging work after
furnishing the office.”– Irin
 

 

Okwuosa on HIV AIDS

Written on December 28th, 2006 by
Categories: HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project

 

 

Guardian

January 11, 2005

 


The Guardian editorial on HIV/AIDS scourge

 


By Jerry Okwuosa

 


T
HE Guardian editorial entitled: “Tackling the
HIV/AIDS scourge” published in the The Guardian of Wednesday, December 15, 2004
must not stop eliciting eloquent commendations and commentaries considering that
the AIDS pandemic now constitutes a profound human tragedy in Nigeria. Relying
on the recently released statistics of both the Federal Ministry of Health and
United Nations Development Programme UNDP, the said editorial drew our attention
not only to the threat posed by the dreaded scourge to national development but
to the fact that it brings about a serious reduction in the nation’s workforce
and manpower.

 

Your editorial did
well to corroborate the UNDP report that the most ravaged group of people in
Nigeria is the Nigerian young between the age bracket of 20 to 24. But your
editorial was silent on UNAIDS’ report released on July 6, 2004 which stated
that three million persons died in 2003 of AIDS (The largest number of infection
since the disease started in 1981) and that one Nigerian is infected with HIV
every minute that passes and that with about one 120 million population Nigeria
contributes 10 per cent of the World’s AIDS burden.

 

The problem of
HIV/AIDS in Nigeria is not lack of HIV/AIDS information or statistics. Of course
many of us can reel out shocking HIV/AIDS statistics in Nigeria. I remember that
about two years ago the Project for Human Development (PHD) was invited to
deliver a HIV/AIDS prevention lecture to junior workers of a certain company in
Victoria Island, Lagos. We were rudely shocked to learn later that about 60 per
cent of the junior workers who participated in the lecture were HIV positive. In
fact the company doctor told us that one junior worker tested HIV positive on
the second day of the lecture. So, AIDS lurks in our midst. We see it everyday.
Therefore, our problem is not lack of AIDS information.
 

The real problem
of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria is the unsatisfactory way with which government, National
Action Committee on AIDS (NACA) and its chairman, Professor Babatunde Osotimehin
have chosen to fight it. You see, the national policy on HIV/AIDS/STIs dated
published December 1997 and issued by the Federal Ministry of Health under the
Policy Objectives stated that prevention of sexual transmission is the vital
thrust of HIV/AID/SSTs control in Nigeria and the strategies for achieving this
control shall include: abstinence from sex until marriage, mutual fidelity by
married couples and condom use.
 

The tragedy is
that even though the government and NACA recognise abstinence and mutual
fidelity as the means that offer the best protection against HIV/AIDS, the same
government and NACA still go on channeling all their resources and energies in
promoting condom use especially among teens and students and ignoring of
abstinence and mutual fidelity. The ZIP U billboard campaign is tricky and
misleading because the same people who promote the promotion the ZIP UP campaign
are the same ones distributing condoms to kids. Promotion of both ZIP and condom
is tantamount to worshipping both God and mammon. The point is that abstinence
and condom use are not mutually exclusive strategies in fighting AIDS. No
sincere organisation can be promoting both ZIP UP and condom because the two are
strange bedfellows. While abstinence offers 100 per cent protection in AIDS
protection, condom, if used properly, might reduce the risk of HIV infection.
But condom cannot stop the HIV virus from passing.

But one Dr. Regina
Gorgen of the University of Heidelberg, Berlin was quoted in
The Guardian
of Thursday Dec. 2, 2004 under the title: “Experts
differ on condom’s safety in prevention” as saying “It is not true that condoms
have holes big enough for HIV to pass through. The water molecules is by far
smaller than HIV, but when you pour water into a condom and allow it to stand
for days, it does not pass through the condom. So all these claims are
nonsense”.

 

First, for Dr.
Gorgen to have used the phrase “big enough” suggests that she knows that condoms
have holes, but she is questioning the size of such holes compared to that of
the HIV virus. Well, if Dr. Gorgen has done her research well she would have
known that rubber experts have measured the virus as 0.1 micron, the second
smallest virus known to man. The concept that “latex rubber condom is
waterproof” means that it has no pores (holes). This is blatantly false. Here is
a statement from a scientific encyclopaedia: “Since under normal conditions, the
skin is waterproof, it helps to conserve the water content of the body. Does
this mean the skin has no pores? We’d all die if our skin didn’t have pores. It
is because water molecules cling together, that’s why they don’t go through
intact latex condom. Viruses, however, don’t clump in the same manner as water.
Latex rubber condom is a semi-permeable membrane. Casting my mind back to my
secondary school osmosis experiment, using water, sugar and a semi-permeable
membrane, the sugar passes through the membrane but the water doesn’t that’s how
the virus passes through the condom without the body fluid passing through. It
is a common occurrence that if one inflates a balloon, ties it up properly and
keeps it in a safe place, after some days the balloon will deflate by losing air
through the tiny invisible naturally occurring holes in its semi-permeable
membrane”.

 

On June 25, 19992
Dr. C. M. Roland, Editor of the journal Rubber Chemistry & Technology stated in
The Washington Post as follows. “…Electron micrographs reveal voids (holes)
five microns in size (50 times larger than the virus), while fracture mechanics
analyses, sensitive to the largest flaws present, suggest inherent flaws as
large as 50 microns (500 times the size of the virus)…. latex condoms have
tiny intrinsic holes called ‘voids.’ The AIDS virus is 50 times smaller than
these tiny holes which make it easy for the virus to pass through them, about as
easy as a dime through a basketball loop.”
 

Therefore,
contrary to the view of Dr. Gorgen and his ilk condom cannot prevent HIV virus
transmission. As far back as 1987 the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) of the
United States stated that: “It would be acceptable to state on the labeling of
latex condoms that when used properly, they may prevent the transmission of many
sexually transmitted diseases such as syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia infections,
genital herpes and AIDS, although condoms cannot eliminate the risk”, but from
year 2001, the FDA permits manufacturers to label condoms for use during
penile-vaginal intercourse as follows: “If used properly, latex condoms will
help reduce the risk of transmission of HIV infection (AIDS) and many other
STDs”. This latest instruction clearly states that condoms do not prevent HIV
transmission but will help reduce the risk of infection.
 

Furthermore, a
study carried out at University of Miami Medical School which used live couples
to test HIV transmission found “that 3 out of 10 women whose husbands are HIV
positive and were always using a fresh condom for each intercourse, contracted
AIDS Related Complexes (ARC) in an 18-month period”. This translates into an
infection rate of 11.2 per cent first year, 21 per cent in 2 years, 30 per cent
in 3 years, 45 per cent in 5 years and 70 per cent in 10 years.

 

As the said
Guardian editorial rightly pointed out, AIDS is a threat to our economy and the
very fabric of our society. It has become the most destructive disease which
effects are measured in declining per capital, loss of productivity, shrinking
profits and deteriorating public services. In this regard AIDS, in my view, now
qualifies as a part of the national question. Therefore, we should stop playing
politics with AIDS. NGOs must stop reaping benefits from the unfortunate
situation of people living with AIDS (PLWHA). Condom marketers should stop
corrupting the Nigerian young simply because they want to market their condoms.
If the Federal government and NACA have recognised the efficacy of abstinence
and mutual fidelity in AIDS prevention it should give it a try by enlisting the
support of pro-abstinence and mutual fidelity.

Uganda tried abstinence and today Uganda is almost free from AIDS. Nigeria must
borrow a leaf from the Ugandan experience and save our young people from the
AIDS scourge
 

  • Okwuosa is
    Director-General, Project for Human Development (PHD), an NGO based in Lagos.

Nigeria prevention brothels

Written on December 28th, 2006 by
Categories: HIV/AIDS-in-Africa Project



MSF intensifies fight against HIV-AIDS in Nigeria

Monday January 17, 2005

LAGOS (AFP) – The medical aid group Doctors Without Borders (news – web sites)
said it was intensifying its fight against HIV (news – web sites)-AIDS (news -
web sites) in Nigeria, where some four million people have already been caught
up in a spiralling epidemic.

Since November 2003, MSF has working with a government hospital in central Lagos
where it has about HIV/AIDS 250 patients enrolled under its project, the
organisation’s spokeswoman, Tracy Crawford, told a group of journalists.

“We are building capacity to fight the disease and encouraging people to get off
the streets and come forward voluntarily for treatment,” she said.

The programme hopes to establish a model of comprehensive care and support for
people living with HIV-AIDS and to reduce HIV-AIDS morbidity and mortality.

Between 200,000 and 490,000 adults and children died of AIDS in Nigeria in 2003,
according to a document jointly prepared by UNAIDS (news – web sites), UNICEF
(news – web sites) and WHO.

MSF will only leave Nigeria “when we are sure that the Nigerian programme, being
funded by the German office of MSF, will continue. For now, we have so far had
positive and fruitful relationship with the hospital,” she added.

She said that the international humanitarian agency has a team of 10 workers in
the hospital, five of them expatriates.

At least two of MSF’s Nigerian workers are HIV positive.

Ibrahim Umoru, 41, a father of two children and a peer health education officer,
said that he has been living with the HIV virus (news – web sites) for five
years and that he is no longer concerned about the social stigma of having the
disease.

His colleague, Mary Ashie, who advises patients on how to maintain their drugs
regime, said that she had become aware of her HIV positive status in 2000, after
her six-month-old son infected with the disease died.

She made fruitless and expensive visits to Christian pastors, herbalists and
local doctors before her health began to deteriorate until she was placed on
anti-retroviral (ARV) drugs, said the shy-looking woman.

“My job under the MSF programme is to let patients know the importance of taking
their drugs at the right time, educate them on drugs and the side effects of ARV,”
she said.

The MSF voluntary counselling and testing centre in the hospital, currently
wearing a new coat of paint, is scheduled to be formally commissioned on Tuesday
by Lagos State Health Commissioner Leke Pital, according to officials.

The centre provides medical care, nutritional support, laboratory services,
counselling, antiretroviral adherence counselling and referrals for other
services.

MSF’s consultation and treatment at the centre is free. The patient only pays
150 naira (about one dollar/euro) to be tested.

Umoru said he had had to pay 21,000 naira (158 dollars) per month where he was
undergoing treatment before he joined MSF last year.

“This money I was paying was far above my monthly salary,” he said

Dose of Prevention Where HIV Thrives – Nigeria Brothel Is Test Site for New
Pill

By Craig Timberg
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, December 22, 2004; Page A15

IBADAN, Nigeria — Crude paintings of women and rows of dimly lit bedrooms make
clear the purpose of a shabby building just off a main road in this sprawling
city. But for the next year, this brothel will have another function as well:
testing a drug that could help stop HIV infections before they begin.

About 125 prostitutes here are pioneers in a U.S.-funded study that will
ultimately involve 5,000 volunteers in seven nations. The study seeks to
determine whether a single daily dose of an AIDS drug called Tenofovir can
prevent infection from taking hold in healthy people, the way birth control
pills prevent conception.

If the pills work — and if such high-risk groups as prostitutes, soldiers and
truck drivers can be persuaded to take a pill every day even though they are not
sick — researchers said it could slow a disease that is devastating Africa and
much of the developing world. There are roughly 40 million people with HIV, the
virus that causes AIDS, and there were 5 million newly infected people in 2003,
according to the United Nations.

“Even if it works for 20 percent of the population, it’s an improvement over
nothing,” said Isaac F. Adewole, provost of the University of Ibadan College of
Medicine, who is overseeing the drug trial.

The drug raises a number of scientific and ethical questions, any one of which
could prevent it from ever being widely administered. But Adewole and other
researchers say if those questions can be resolved, Tenofovir could dramatically
curb the spread of HIV by blocking infection in people who are most likely to
catch the virus and pass it on.

A 1995 trial using Tenofovir blocked the transmission of the simian strain of
HIV in monkeys. A similar approach has already succeeded in preventing infection
in rape victims and medical workers exposed to HIV.

Like other antiretroviral drugs, Tenofovir works by keeping HIV from
reproducing. Researchers say that a daily dose could interrupt the crucial first
step of HIV, when the virus turns host cells into factories that make millions
of copies of the virus.

Tenofovir trials are beginning in Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon, Malawi, Botswana and
Thailand, as well as in Atlanta and San Francisco.

Among the most appealing aspects of a drug taken daily to prevent HIV, say
researchers, is that women could take it privately at a time of their choosing,
without a husband or other sexual partner knowing. Married women — even those
who are monogamous — are among those most vulnerable to AIDS because husbands
who have sexual relations with other women may be unlikely to take precautions
or alert their spouses.

“World over, it is much more difficult for somebody in a long-term, supposedly
faithful relationship to use a condom,” Helene Gayle of the Bill & Melinda Gates
Foundation, which has contributed $6.5 million to Tenofovir trials, said from
the foundation’s headquarters in Seattle.

The most difficult questions about Tenofovir research concern the safety and
practicality of a long-term daily drug regimen for healthy people, particularly
in Africa and other parts of the developing world where regular use of medicine
is uncommon. Taking the drug sporadically, researchers say, might provide only
partial protection and could encourage mutant strains of HIV to develop.

There have also been strenuous objections from AIDS activists concerned about
the ethics of a study in which half of all subjects receive a placebo rather
than a drug that could save their lives. During research in Cambodia, where 900
prostitutes were being recruited for the trial, an organization of sex workers
protested, pushing the government to suspend the study there this past summer.
Hun Sen, the nation’s prime minister, was quoted as saying, “If a trial is
needed, please do it on animals and don’t use Cambodians.”

Complaints have also come from advocates of traditional vaccines and
microbicides who regard the study as a costly diversion from other research.
Microbicides are applied to the vagina or rectum before a sexual encounter to
kill the virus before it can cause infection. Supporters say that approach is
more practical than taking a pill every day.

“I’m not saying that nobody is going to take it,” said Morenike Ukpong of the
Nigeria HIV Vaccine and Microbicide Advocacy Group. “I’m saying [the number] is
very low.”

The worldwide research project is projected to cost as much as $50 million, with
the expense divided among the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
the National Institutes of Health and the Gates Foundation.

The first answers to some of the questions about Tenofovir will come from the
prostitutes in Ibadan, who were recruited from several brothels and have been
taking pills since July. Prostitution is legal here, and the brothels attract a
steady supply of women from the surrounding countryside looking for a way to
finance schooling, assist struggling families or save money to start a business.

Two of the prostitutes, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said they were
aware of the dangers of HIV and eager to protect themselves with the condoms and
pills provided by the researchers. Both women, in their early twenties, said
they had experienced no side effects.

“I take the medicine every day now,” said one of the women, leaning over a
brothel balcony. She was wearing a tight red dress and had coiled her hair into
tight, spiky braids. Her friend, clad in a sheer black top, cooled herself with
a plastic fan. “I take my medicine and I use condoms, so I think I’m safe,” she
said.

But like everyone else in the study, these women did not know whether they were
taking Tenofovir or a placebo. The prostitutes are counseled and given unlimited
access to condoms, but in a city where 22 percent of all sex workers have HIV,
researchers expect some to contract the virus during the study.

That is the crux of the ethical dilemmas facing the Tenofovir trials. At an
international AIDS conference in Bangkok in July, an activist group, AIDS
Coalition to Unleash Power, organized protests and posted signs reading: “Tenofovir
makes me sick.”

Among the demands of AIDS activists is that anybody who contracts HIV during the
study should be guaranteed lifetime medical treatment. Researchers have agreed
to arrange for antiretroviral therapy though national public health systems, but
have argued that to guarantee lifetime medical care would drive the cost of the
study so high that it would become impractical.

Ward Cates, president of Family Health International, a nonprofit group in North
Carolina, is overseeing several of the trials around the world. He said past HIV
research showed that even those who received placebos in such studies were less
likely to become infected than the general population because they also received
counseling and condoms.

The first results from the study are due in 2006. If Tenofovir is found to be
safe and effective, it could become available for daily use soon after because
it has already been approved throughout much of the world for treating AIDS.
Some even imagine Tenofovir one day being packaged with other medicines taken
daily, such as birth control pills, to make it even easier to use.

“There’s not a one-size-fits-all approach for trying to attack the virus,” Cates
said in a telephone interview from his office. “We need a full range of HIV
prevention measures.”

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