FOR WIDE DISSEMINATION

PREPARED BY BOLAJI ALUKO (alukome@gmail.com)

 MAY 2, 2009

Summary:

(1)  In Table A,  we use INEC-approved and Appeal-Court-approved election figures from ALL the sixteen (16) LGAS in Ekiti State to show that based on the April 14, 2007 results, Fayemi led Oni 78,779 to 66,834 (for a difference of 11,945 votes in favor of Fayemi) going into the Re-Run elections of April 25, 2009.

(2)  In Table B, following the re-run, we use the results from the only five LGAs (Ise-Orun, Gbonyin, Irepodun/Ifelodun, Ekiti-Southwest and Ijero) that were  accepted  and announced  by INEC (on April 25, 2009) to show Oni's re-run-election lead from those five LGAs being 15,420 to Fayemi's  15,026 (for a difference of 394 in favor of Oni). The overall difference is still however 11,551 in favor of Fayemi.

(3)  In Table C, we add in three LGAs (Ekiti-West, Ekiti East and Ikole) not yet announced by INEC as of today May 2, 2009 - but whose figures are known and agreed to by all political parties - to show that Fayemi leads overall by 102,452 to 94,106 over Oni (a difference of 8,346 in favor of Fayemi). 

(4)  Table C excludes any re-run figures being added to Ido-Osi LGA (which re-run elections should and must be cancelled) or to Oye LGA (which re-run ought to be cancelled, or its re-rerun date given following a 14-day notice).  Both cancellations are recommended due to violence on April 25, 2009.

(5)  In Table D, we show a summary of Tables A, B and C, bringing all the numbers together.

(6)  Finally, in Table E, we show that

       (i)  there are a total of 16 LGAs, 177 wards, and 2,195 polling stations in Ekiti State, for a total electorate count of 738,335.

       (ii) on April 14, 2007, a total of 15 wards were cancelled by INEC (10 of them in Efon LGA) due to violence on that  original gubernatorial election day, with a total electorate count of 42,469, and were never scheduled for re-run.

      (iii) on February 17, 2009, a total of 63 wards spread unevenly over 10 LGAs and 796 polling units were cancelled by  the Appeals Court on judgment day, for a total electorate count of  248,910, and were then offered up for a re-run on April 25, 2009.

     (iv) on April 25, 2009, violence manifested in only 1.2 LGAs (Ido-Osi and Oye), over  6 wards total and 53 polling units [Ifaki I (8 PUs), Ifaki II (10), Orin-Ora (19) and Usi (16), in Ido-Osi LGA; and Oye I (19 PUs) and Oye II (17) in Oye LGA] with a total electorate count of 38,334. Oye (18,924 electorate count, 36 polling units) is just 2 wards out of 12 in Oye LGA. A bloated vote count from Ido-Osi LGA of 15,939 for Oni, and 3,793 for Fayemi suddenly appeared from nowhere from the PDP camp.  13,025 of the Oni count came from four wards only (Ifaki I, Ifaki II, Usi and Orin/Ora).

     (v)  Consequently, 1.2 LGAs out of 16 total (20%), 6 wards out of 177 total (3.4%), 53 polling units out of 2,195 (2.4%),  and an electorate count of 38,334 out of 738,335 (5.2%) are presently what are in contention before Ekiti's INEC and its conscientious Resident Electoral Commissioner, Mrs. Ayoka Olusola Adebayo.


The verdict?

Ekiti peoples' vigilance paid off.  Consequently, this writer (and partisan) watches closely to see how the true winner of this election - Fayemi -  will not emerge within the next three weeks.

There you have it - that the world may know.



Bolaji Aluko
May 2, 2009
Burtonsville, MD, USA
Back from operational base and information nerve-center in "Camp John", Ekiti State
INEC-notified, Action-Congress party agent for April 25 Re-run elections
Happy to answer ANY questions