MID-WEEK MUSING - The Arithmetic of Obama's Inevitability (Essay by Bolaji Aluko)
May 8, 2008 | posted by Mobolaji Aluko (Archives)
|
by
Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD
alukome@gmail.com
Burtonsville, MD, USA
May 8, 2008
The spectacular performance of Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in both North Carolina (Obama 62%, Clinton 42%, +17 delegates) and Indiana (Obama 49%, Clinton 51%, Clinton +4 pledged delegates) on Tuesday May 6 reinforces the element of inevitability in an outcome which will have him become the nominee of the Democratic Party, and become its candidate in November 2008 presidential elections.
If we discount Michigan and Florida, then there are 3253 pledged delegates and 796 superdelegates up for grabs in the primaries of the Democratic Party. That means that a majority of pledged delegates will be 1627 and a majority of superdelegates will be 399.
At a present total count of 1856 (see tables below), Obama is 169 votes away from the magical 2025 needed to win the nomination. Before then, though, at 1594, Obama is only 33 away from winning the majority of pledged delegates. At 262, he is 12 to 15 away (depending on who is counting) from catching up with Clinton in terms of superdelegates. Once he does that - which I believe will be within the next few days or fortnight, in his usual drip-drip fashion without discounting a gush possibility - then even the Clintons might admit the hopelessness of their cause, because by then Obama will need only about 125 superdelegates out of about 260 remaining from also securing the majority of the superdelegates.
At that point, Obama's "Audacity of Hope" would then have hit home more forcefully for all to see.
Will Obama win in November? Asking that question in itself will be a massive paradigm shift in American politics; asking that about a Black, first-term-Senator, second-generation, interracially-born African (Kenyan) African-American with an Asian stepfather, contesting against the Clinton machine is in itself inspiring.
What will the answer be?
We shall see....may God give us all breath to see the outcome when the pregnancy of time becomes delivered. Que sera sera.
Best wishes all.
Quick Summary of May 6 Results and Upcoming Primaries:
|
DATE
(2008)
|
State
|
Delegates
|
|
Obama
|
Clinton
|
Others
|
Total
|
|
MAY 6
|
Indiana
|
72
|
|
34
|
38
|
0
|
72
|
|
|
North Carolina
|
115
|
|
66
|
49
|
0
|
115
|
|
MAY 13
|
West Virginia
|
28
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
MAY 20
|
Kentucky
|
51
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Oregon
|
52
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
JUN 1
|
Puerto Rico
|
55
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
JUN 3
|
Montana
|
16
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
South Dakota
|
15
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Source: obama.com/resultscenter/index.php">http://www.barackobama.com/resultscenter/index.php
State-by-State Results
Last updated at 11:20am, Wednesday, May 07th, 2008
Compiled in the form below by NigerianMuse.com
|
DATE
(2008)
|
State
|
Delegates
|
|
Obama
|
Clinton
|
Others
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
3573.3
|
|
1856
|
1698.5
|
19
|
3573.5
|
|
|
Super Delegates
|
796
|
|
262
|
275.5
|
0
|
537.5
|
|
JAN 3
|
Iowa
|
45
|
|
24
|
14
|
7
|
45
|
|
JAN 8
|
New Hampshire
|
22
|
|
9
|
9
|
4
|
22
|
|
JAN 15
|
Michigan
|
0(128)
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
JAN 19
|
Nevada
|
25
|
|
13
|
12
|
0
|
25
|
|
JAN 26
|
South Carolina
|
45
|
|
25
|
12
|
8
|
45
|
|
JAN 29
|
Florida
|
0 (185)
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
FEB 5
|
Alabama
|
52
|
|
27
|
25
|
0
|
52
|
|
(Super
Tuesday)
|
Alaska
|
13
|
|
9
|
4
|
0
|
13
|
|
|
American Samoa
|
3
|
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
Arizona
|
56
|
|
25
|
31
|
0
|
56
|
|
|
Arkansas
|
35
|
|
8
|
27
|
0
|
35
|
|
|
California
|
370
|
|
166
|
204
|
0
|
370
|
|
|
Colorado
|
55
|
|
36
|
19
|
0
|
55
|
|
|
Connecticut
|
48
|
|
26
|
22
|
0
|
48
|
|
|
Delaware
|
15
|
|
9
|
6
|
0
|
15
|
|
|
Democrats Abroad
|
7
|
|
5
|
2
|
0
|
7
|
|
|
Georgia
|
87
|
|
60
|
27
|
0
|
87
|
|
|
Idaho
|
18
|
|
15
|
3
|
0
|
18
|
|
|
Illinois
|
153
|
|
104
|
49
|
0
|
153
|
|
|
Kansas
|
32
|
|
23
|
9
|
0
|
32
|
|
|
Massachusetts
|
93
|
|
38
|
55
|
0
|
93
|
|
|
Minnesota
|
72
|
|
48
|
24
|
0
|
72
|
|
|
Missouri
|
72
|
|
36
|
36
|
0
|
72
|
|
|
New Jersey
|
107
|
|
48
|
59
|
0
|
107
|
|
|
New Mexico
|
26
|
|
12
|
14
|
0
|
26
|
|
|
New York
|
232
|
|
93
|
130
|
0
|
223
|
|
|
North Dakota
|
13
|
|
8
|
5
|
0
|
13
|
|
|
Oklahoma
|
38
|
|
14
|
24
|
0
|
38
|
|
|
Tennessee
|
68
|
|
28
|
40
|
0
|
68
|
|
|
Utah
|
23
|
|
14
|
9
|
0
|
23
|
|
FEB 9
|
Louisiana
|
56
|
|
34
|
22
|
0
|
56
|
|
|
Nebraska
|
24
|
|
16
|
8
|
0
|
24
|
|
|
Washington
|
78
|
|
53
|
25
|
0
|
78
|
|
|
Virgin Islands
|
3
|
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
|
FEB 10
|
Maine
|
24
|
|
15
|
9
|
0
|
24
|
|
FEB 12
|
District of Columbia
|
15
|
|
12
|
3
|
0
|
15
|
|
|
Maryland
|
70
|
|
42
|
28
|
0
|
70
|
|
|
Virginia
|
83
|
|
54
|
29
|
0
|
83
|
|
FEB 19
|
Hawaii
|
20
|
|
14
|
6
|
0
|
20
|
|
|
Wisconsin
|
74
|
|
42
|
32
|
0
|
74
|
|
MAR 4
|
Ohio
|
141
|
|
67
|
74
|
0
|
141
|
|
|
Rhode Island
|
21
|
|
8
|
13
|
0
|
21
|
|
|
Texas Primary
|
126
|
|
61
|
65
|
0
|
126
|
|
|
Texas Caucus
|
67
|
|
38
|
29
|
0
|
67
|
|
|
Vermont
|
15
|
|
9
|
6
|
0
|
15
|
|
MAR 9
|
Wyoming
|
12
|
|
7
|
5
|
0
|
12
|
|
MAR 11
|
Mississippi
|
33
|
|
20
|
13
|
0
|
33
|
|
APR 22
|
Pennsylvania
|
158
|
|
73
|
85
|
0
|
158
|
|
MAY 3
|
Guam
|
4
|
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
4
|
|
MAY 6
|
Indiana
|
72
|
|
34
|
38
|
0
|
72
|
|
|
North Carolina
|
115
|
|
66
|
49
|
0
|
115
|
|
MAY 13
|
West Virginia
|
28
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
MAY 20
|
Kentucky
|
51
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Oregon
|
52
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
JUN 1
|
Puerto Rico
|
55
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
JUN 3
|
Montana
|
16
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
South Dakota
|
15
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Delegates Needed to Win - 2025 (With Michigan and Florida Excluded)
Delegates Needed to Win - 2210
i.e. when we include:
Michigan - 128 Pledged Delegates, 29 Superdelegates (Total 157 Delegates)
Florida - 185 Pledged Delegates 26 Superdelegates (Total 211 Delegates)
Superdelegate Comparison
Updated May 7, 2008
Source:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-endorsement-notes.html
|
Candidate
|
DCW
|
CNN
|
NBC
|
AP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clinton
|
269.5
|
267
|
273
|
271
|
|
Obama
|
258
|
254
|
256
|
256
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Delegate Count (without Michigan and Florida)
Includes add-ons
Updated May 7, 2008
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-endorsement-notes.html
|
Candidate
|
Pledged
|
Super
|
Total
|
Need To Win
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
|
1589.5
|
258
|
1847.5
|
177
|
|
Clinton
|
1427.5
|
269.5
|
1697
|
327.5
|
|
Edwards
|
19
|
0
|
19
|
|
|
Remains
|
217
|
267.5
|
484.5
|
|
Superdelegates by Position (without Michigan and Florida)
Updated May 7, 2008
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-endorsement-notes.html
|
Candidate
|
Clinton
|
Obama
|
None
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gov
|
11
|
14
|
6
|
|
Senators
|
13
|
16
|
17
|
|
Reps
|
79
|
79
|
65
|
|
DPL
|
9
|
5
|
5
|
|
DNC
|
148.5
|
129
|
120.5
|
|
Add-Ons
|
9
|
13
|
54
|
|
Total
|
269.5
|
258
|
267.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
Save This Article