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The Case for An Energy Emergency in Nigeria
By
Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD
Burtonsville, MD, USA January 2008
INTRODUCTION
From Lagos to Lafia, and from Port Harcourt to Potiskum, what is on every lip of every Nigerian almost every time is the dire need for adequate and reliable energy – by which we mean primarily electricity, oil and gas, to power the living and productive needs of Nigerians, residential, commercial, industrial, institutional, transportation, and telecommunications being highest on the list. The situation is particularly galling when we know first that Nigeria is one of the major oil-and-gas-producing countries in the world, and secondly that government has claimed to have spent billions of naira in building and revamping the entire energy sector, particularly during the eight years of the Obasanjo regime (1999-2007), with little or no improvement achieved.
This essay x-rays the electricity quagmire, and proffers some suggestions. There are some obvious parallels with the oil-and-gas industry, but that is the subject of another symposium.
THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR
One was often amused when one used to read that NEPA (Nigeria's National Electric Power Authority) officials – now Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) - as well as other political operatives of the present civilian administration boasted that while before 1999, the electric energy output of the country was roughly 1700 MW out of a total capacity of 6000 MW, production has since been able to be maintained steadily in the 2500 – 3200 MW range; have even for a period attained a peak of 4,200 MW, and that they are now aiming for 10,000 MW by the year 2010 ! These government officials are quick to trot out where and how electrical energy is produced in Nigeria, and announce "big" plans for new ones. Some were even inaugurated with fanfare by the Obasanjo administration.
So how big really are 1,700, 3,200, 4,200, 6,000
and 10,000 MW ? Totally inadequate amounts of electric power for a country 140
million strong! The question as to how much energy (in form of
electricity)
Nigeria
really needs is never emphasized.
To answer this question – among several other important questions - we first need to do some quick energy arithmetic and then look at some international benchmarks.
BACK-OF-THE-ENVELOPE ELECTRICAL ENERGY
ARITHMETIC
We are all familiar with the 60-Watt incandescent
electric bulb, but for the moment, let us look on the brighter side and
consider the 100 Watt bulb, and assume that ten of those (that could light up
5 standard-size living or bedrooms/areas) are turned on 24 hours a day/7 days
a week. That will require a 1,000 Watt generating power – or 1 kW
or 1 KVA power-generating plant running 24/7, assuming no power losses from
the generation point through the transmission line to the delivery site of the
bulbs. 10,000 of those 100-Watt bulbs will therefore require a 1 MW
power plant. [1 MW = 1,000 kW = 1,000,000 W; 1 W = 1 V x 1 A; V stands for
Voltage and A stands for Ampere (a current strength measure)
Watts and
megawatts are units of power, which, if deployed in time as electricity,
produce energy to do electric work. The relevant unit of such energy
here is the watt-hr (a watt of power deployed over one hour) or the kWh or the
MWh as the case may be. 1 MWh = 1,000 kWh = 1,000,000 Wh. Household
generators in
Nigeria
are often quoted in the 5 - 30 KVA range; 1 KVA = 1 kW.].
I MW of a power station running 24/7 produces roughly 0.01 billion kWh in one year (calculated from 1000 kW x 24 hrs per day * 365 days per year ). That means that a 100 MW power plant – a good standard for sizing such plants - produces about 1 billion kWh (or 1 terawatt-hour) annually. [1 billion = 1,000 Million.]
From the above quick arithmetic, Nigeria's maximum-capacity generating plants of 6,000 MW should therefore be producing 60 billion kWh annually if running constantly- or about 430 kWh per capita for 140 million people.
A COMPARISON WITH OTHER
NATIONS
It is important to look at several countries around
the world – two hundred and eight countries and communities
to be exact - to assess their electrical energy production (per capita
and total) usage. There are tables periodically published such that
countries are arranged within each class in order of declining per capita
electricity production, or total production or usage as the case might
be.
In one of such tables, Nigeria was listed as having produced in the year 2001 just 15.67 billion kWh. That would mean that even though we sometimes attain 3000 – 4000 MW power peak output - that is half- to two-thirds the maximum POWER rated – the actual energy output (which is what really matters) was 15.67/60 or more like one-quarter ! That implies that there is a serious difference between power available and energy delivered, pointing out once more the fact we have energy "kwashiorkor" in Nigeria
These observations however need to be qualified,
bearing in mind that these figures do not include the various PRIVATE
generators humming all over the country, all generating immeasurable PRIVATE
electricity (and noise to boot) to homes, offices and industries.
A second point has to do with comparing our per capita production of electrical energy with that of other nations. In closely inspecting the stated 2001 data, and focusing only on electrical energy production – total and per capita, one noticed that on a purely market size basis (total energy production), US, China, Brazil and South Africa are the leaders in their respective geographical categories, with the US producing almost 570 billon kWh down to South Africa producing about 200 billion kWh in 2001. On a per-capita energy production basis (it is convenient to state it on a per million people basis here), Canada, Australia, Paraguay and again South Africa are the leaders, with Canada at 17.4 billion kWh per million people, and South Africa at 4.6 billion kWh per million people. Note that per capita here does not mean what each million people use by themselves FOR THEMSELVES, but rather, in addition to that, what is used ON THEIR BEHALF - by industries for their goods, in transportation, in lighting, heating and cooling their offices and recreation spaces, etc.
Nigeria's stated figures are 15.67 billion kWh total energy production and 0.11 billion kWh per million people, which is roughly equivalent to having a constantly-running 11 MW of power station per million people, or a total of 1,500 MW for the country. If, for example, Nigeria were to produce electricity at the USA rate of 12.7 Billion kWh per million people - which is equivalent to having a 1,270 MW plant per million people (or 1.270 MW per thousand people) - then with a population of 137 million, we should have power plants totaling 174,000 MW. If, on the other hand, we were to compare ourselves with South Africa, we should have power plants totaling 63,000 MW, which is ten times what we have now. [South Africa is predicting that it will need 20,000 MW ADDITIONAL electrical power by 2022 !] If we are to meet the world average of 2.34 Billion kWh per million people, then we need five times what we have now.
Similar comparisons can be made with other nations to serve as guidelines for developing our electrical energy production sector.
More recent data (June 2007) show that while Iceland came in tops in the energy per capita table with a figure of 26,101.99 kWh per capita, United States 9th at 12,343.098 kWh per capita, Nigeria came in 170th (out of 208 countries and territories) with a puny figure of 131.155 kWh per capita. That can again be compared with South Africa [ 55th, with 4,704.778 kWh per capita] and Ghana [158th, with 309.402 kWh per capita ] On the total production table, the situation is a little bit different: USA [1st at 3,717 billion kWh ], South Africa [16th at 207 billion kWh ] ] Nigeria [68th at 17.71 billion kWh ], Iceland [90th at 7.881 billion kWh] nd Ghana [93rd at 7.095 kWh ].
See:
EnergyDevelopmentProject/Tables_Showing_Electricity_Consumption_Per_Capita_and_Total_by_Country target=_blank>http://www.nigerianmuse.com
electricity_Nigeria.htm target=_blank>http://www.nigerianmuse.com for more details.
WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS HERE IN
NIGERIA?
PHCN officials, its watchers and energy experts have identified several problems with NEPA itself, namely:
(1) in generation The fewness and sparse distribution of generation points relative to the size of the country present the first set of problems. The first problem is that clearly we have not invested sufficiently in total generating capacity, apparently being satisfied with previously estimated demands rather than a visionary attitude that more electricity generates demand for even more in a positive-feedback manner. Secondly, the 8 generation stations – with more than half located along the coast and the rest along the midsection of the country – with a capacity of 6,000 MW means on average that we have 750 MW per generating station. When one station shuts down or has a problem – due to poor water levels, disrupted fuel supply or turbine breakdown or outright sabotage - it takes down a whole portion of the country with it, with no possibility of convening the help of a nearby station. Thus, on the whole, the average per-station power generated needs to be cut to no more than 100 MW by building smaller power plants (by both private and private/public partnership) and distributing them more evenly around the country. Diversifying the sources from non-renewable fossil fuel to renewable sources like solar (to include wind and ocean waves) as well as biofuels must certainly be put in the mix.
(2) in transmission The sparse geographical distribution of generation points also means that average distances over which electrical energy is distributed are high – anywhere from 300 – 500 kilometers. This results in line voltage and power losses – as high as 25% in Nigeria (compared with 3% in the US and 0.5% in Japan) – particularly since the grid voltages in Nigeria are typically 330 kV compared with increasingly 440-765 kV in developed countries. For example, for a given power, the higher the grid line voltage, the smaller the grid current, and hence for a given length (and hence resistance) of wire, the smaller the line power loss by a power of two. A 330 kV line will lose more than four times the power of a 765 kV line over the same distance. Distribution problems are compounded when electrical (copper or aluminum) wires are stolen and power transformers (for stepping down and stepping up voltages along the way),, switches and circuit breakers are either worn, broken down or are not state-of-the-art. Thus, reducing distribution distances, increasing the gridline voltages, and improving security, intelligent grid monitoring and maintenance culture are clear steps to be taken here.
(3) in distribution and marketing At the end of the day, somebody must pay for the energy generated, and that should be the consumer – residential, commercial and industrial - to whom the electricity is distributed at the appropriate voltages (240 volts for most residential and some commercial users in Nigeria, and higher for most commercial and industrial users). As at June 2002, NEPA's revenue customer base was put at about 3.05 million - 83% of which where residential, 16% commercial and 0.4% industrial. In a country that is 137 million, with 446 Local government areas (or 57.6%) out of 774 connected to the national grid, and 35% of them reportedly having some connection to NEPA, that is a pitiful, pitiful customer base. Even the figure 35% is suspect: with 83% of 3.05 million being 2.53 million residences, an average of 5 or 6 persons per household would put the number of residential people at 13 - 15 million or more in the neighborhood of 10% of the population - unless of course only a third of those who should pay are in NEPA books !
Zero-voltage (blackouts), sustained low voltage
(brown-outs) or frequent heavily fluctuating voltages (giving real meaning to
the term "alternating current" AC quite alright !) have been the order of the
day in the experience of Nigerians, making the desire to pay for such poor
quality service quite understandably low. Poor recording of electricity
use by customers by the electricity authority, coupled with
indiscriminate billing and disconnection moves; poor collection methods
and outright fraud (eg. Illegal electrical connections; payments not
remitted to NEPA, etc.) have been major problems here.
It would appear that the introduction of pre-payment methods will go a long way to solving these problems – but obviously not those of "blackouts, brownouts and heavily-fluctuating voltages," unless the increased revenue is appropriately re-directed !
UNBUNDLING NEPA – 6 GENCOS, 1 TRANSCO AND 11
DISCOS
In line with the Obasanjo regime's mantra of liberalization and privatization, and government complaints about large sums of money being spent on NEPA without measurable improvement, it pledged to sell off NEPA to private hands, with the latest date (after many shifts) being sometime in 2005. The Electric Power Sector Reform (EPSR) Bill, which languished with the National Assembly for a long time, has since been passed into law, resulting into an unbundling of PHCN into various new business units: 6 Generating Companies (Gencos) based around the present major generating plants, 1 Transmission Company and 6 Distribution Company (Discos), with these new business units being slated to be serially sold off to private hands as willing buyers come along.
Little or no improvement has been seen since such
unbundling. One would have expected that both the six generating and
eleven distribution companies to be unbundled along the six geographic
zones. What we have now is in effect a replacement of the former
national monopoly with smaller regional monopolies without a strong
private-sector competitive underpinning. Until and unless a user can
choose between a number of the Gencos (not necessarily all), AND choose among
some of the Discos, AND there is real economic loss to those not chosen, then
a competitive environment that might engender qualitative improvements would
not have been fostered in the electricity sector.
WHAT EACH STATE IN NIGERIA SHOULD DO WITH RESPECT TO (ELECTRICAL) ENERGY
Whatever it is that the federal government might be
doing, it is incumbent upon each state or administrative unit in
Nigeria to
adopt a clear and comprehensive energy (oil, gas and electricity) policy if it
is achieve any semblance of economic development. That should start with
a thorough energy audit of current and projected
needs in terms of
That is in the true spirit of federalism, and not the lock-step unitary, pseudo-federalist system that we now seem to be running.
AN EXAMPLE – EKITI STATE
To fix ideas, let us consider a brief discussion of estimating the electricity demand in my Ekiti State as an example of such an energy policy.
According to the 2006 census, Ekiti State currently has a population of about 2.4 million people If we compare ourselves with the US per capita energy usage, then Ekiti State would need 3,000 MW.; if it is with South Africa, then we would need 1,130 MW. At the present capacity of Nigeria, however, we will need 30 MW. Currently, Ekiti State has no power plant, and according to most recent information the installed capacity for Ekiti State is 100MW. Out of this only 37MW is allocated and this comes through the four neighbouring states of Kwara, Kogi, Osun and Ondo. The supply is not only low, but very erratic. The records show that 110 towns and villages have been supplied with electricity, with many more in the dark.
One would think that for current and near-future needs, Ekiti State should aim for 5 - 10 times better than the current average of Nigeria right now, meaning a total aim for150 MW - 300 MW electric generating station.
What mix of energy sources – hydro, thermal, solar
and wind, and nuclear - would supply such power to
Ekiti
State ?
It may be controversial, but one should not eschew
a consideration for NUCLEAR REACTORS, which are not really as dangerous
as they are made out to be in the press.
However, traditional pressurized-water or boiling-water water (nuclear) reactors (PWR, BWR) produce energy of the order of 1,000 MW, which would be too big (and costly) for Ekiti State for the conceivable future. However, one or two new micro-nuclear reactors (some Pebble Bed Modular Reactors PMBR are being developed in South Africa, at 110 MW each) could supply all that we need in Ekiti State without too much nuclear accident endangerment and without requiring oil and gas transportation from the Niger-Delta to Ekiti. With respect to solar energy, Nigeria is reportedly endowed with an annual average daily sunshine of 6.25 hours, ranging between about 3.5 hours at the coastal areas to 9.0 hours at the far northern boundary. Similarly, it has an annual average daily solar radiation of about 5.25 KWh/m2/day, varying between about 3.5 kWh/m2/day at the coastal Area and 7.0kWh/m2/day at the northern boundary. To get solar panel area requirements for given power and energy needs, we will need to note that current solar conversion to electricity efficiency is roughly 15%; then add in worse-than-average radiation factor of about 2, and an additional (say) 15% over-capacity factor for daily swings in radiation. That will give us roughly 3 square meters of solar panel per kWh needed per day at the annual average daily solar radiation of about 5.25 KWh/m2/day. [Calculate area of solar panel using (1/5.25) *(100/15)*(2)*(1.15); actual numbers may vary depending on geographical location.] For a day of 6.25 hours of sunlight, that is roughly 20 square meters per kW. A 1 MW solar-based electrical plant would therefore require about 20,000 square meters (or 5 acres) of solar panels - roughly the size of three regulation-size soccer fields (which are of the order of 70 meters wide by 110 meters long) - in addition to the need for inverters (to convert direct current DC to AC) and deep-cycle batteries (for storage then use when the Sun is not available at night). [1 acre = 43,560 square feet = 4047 sq meters = 0.4047 hectares = 0.00156 sq miles]
On the other hand, for wind energy (which
interestingly is solar-derived, since wind movement is a result of
differential heating of air masses), the need for wind mills of diameter 5 -
25 meters means that there need to be unobstructed clearances around them of
those same heights for the windmills to turn. Coastal areas, vast
flatlands and hilly areas are prime locations. In Nigeria, at the 25
meter high level, wind speeds have been measured to vary from as low as about
1.6 meters per second (3.6 miles per hour ) to as high as 4.5 meters per
second (10 mph). Note that 10 - 16 mph are good wind speeds for power
applications, but some machines will produce electric power with about half of
that speed. Furthermore, wind power varies with the wind velocity raised
to the power of three (i.e. velocity cubed) multiplied by the wind mill rotor
diameter raised to the power of two (i.e. diameter squared).
It has been estimated that the maximum energy obtainable from a 25m diameter wind turbine with an efficiency of 30% at 25m height is about 97 MWh per year for Sokoto, a site in the high-wind speed regions, 50 MWh per year for Kano, 25.7 MWh per year for Lagos and 24.5 MWh per year from Port Harcourt. So for Ekiti (being between Lagos and Port Harcourt , and north of both) it probably will be in the neighborhood of 30 MWh according to my estimate !
Thus, with regard to energy from renewables such as
solar and wind, one cannot REALISTICALLY expect to generate more than 10% of
our energy requirements.
Being therefore left with Hydro and Thermal sources, since we have no large water falls (but a few dams) in Ekiti State, their distributions have been made 20%-70% Hydro-Thermal. [Hydro-Power can be quickly estimated from Power (in kW) = 10 * Head (in meters) * Water Flowrate (in cubic meters per second), where for small hydro dams (1 - 10 MW or 1000 - 10,000 kW), typically heads are of the range of 20 - 120 meters.]
The upshot of all the above is that for Ekiti State, a mix of 2 Thermal Units (to make a total of approximately 200 MW) and 1 Hydro unit (of equivalent of 100 MW; from various micro- to small-size dams) will be what we need, staged and financed in any way that we can afford. Wind energy can then be deployed in some of our highlands, while solar energy can be deployed for small-load (direct-current) use particularly where backup storage during night-time is not crucial.
Similar considerations can be made by other states.
EPILOGUE
Electrical energy is the most mobile and versatile
form of energy. It is directly needed to run our home and industrial
appliances and machinery, light, heat and cool our living and work
spaces, and for our telecommunications. Other forms of energy
sources (coal, oil and gas) are also needed to provide the electricity
in the first instance, to run our transportation industry and to directly
provide heating wherever needed as well. Their collective good quality
and quantity are absolutely essential for national economic and technological
development. Until and unless we get all their demand, generation,
transmission and distribution/marketing matrix right - all of which should be
part of a comprehensive energy policy for the nation - no amount of effort in
attracting foreign direct investment into the country will yield the kind of
positive results that we want. An energy emergency being declared in the country is therefore long overdue.
Dr. Mobolaji E. Aluko, is a professor of Chemical Engineering at Howard University, Washington, DC, USA, and President/CEO of Alondex Applied Technologies, LLC, an innovative technology company. |
