DOCUMENT: "Errors, Miscalculations, Omissions in Lagos Census Figures"

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Errors, miscalculations, omissions in Lagos census figures                              7/2/2007

                                                                                                                          

Many Nigerians, and informed commentators on demographics have loudly and vehemently condemned and rejected the under- reporting of the population figures "allotted" to Lagos State. Historically, under-counting, deliberate reduction of the state population, started as far as back as 1931 and continued through subsequent censuses, hence the State Government was determined to ensure that recurring injustice would be corrected. The result and the figures announced is an indication of a determined effort to maintain the status quo, and move farther away from reality. This problem however seems to have been built-in by our colonial rulers as one of the factors of subjugation as far back as 1931.

The immediate and potential loss to the state and the nation is colossal. The benefits to Lagos and ultimately the country of a large population will be minimised. Since Lagos is the only recognized mega city in Nigeria, these benefits include the recognized market size of Lagos, a strong pull for foreign investors, relationship with development partners, planning for infrastructure etc. The state can not continue to grope in darkness by planning all aspects of her social, economic and political life with inadequate and inaccurate statistics.

Historical Background

Let us examine the history of census as it pertains to Lagos State.

It is evidenced from history that Lagos State, being the most cosmopolitan state had witnessed census migration during the past Nigerian Census of 1962/63, 1973 and 1991. Based on this, the government mobilized and strategised on means of preventing this perpetual problem which distorts the accurate population of Lagos. Hence the issuance of identification slips and the execution of the most aggressive publicity/awareness campaign to persuade Lagos residents to remain in Lagos and be counted during the census.

It should be recalled that the first population census was conducted in what was referred then to as Lagos colony in 1866. The pre- independence census, conducted in 1951-1953, recorded a total of 270,000 persons for Lagos. In 1961, another census was conducted. Although it was cancelled, it recorded 450,000 persons for Lagos. It was however not accepted, hence nullified. Another recount was ordered in 1962/63, the result recorded 680,000 persons for Lagos and 55.6 million for Nigeria. In 1973 (Under the Military Government of General Gowon) a census conducted recorded a total of 65.5 for the Country and for Lagos State, 2.47 million. The figures recorded for Lagos and other parts of the country could not hold up to close empirical scrutiny. The Muritala administration subsequently cancelled the results. In 1991, another census was conducted under the administration of Gen. Babangida. Though, the figures were accepted as in some quarters, there are still some controversies till date. This census recorded a total of 5,726,000 for Lagos State.

Based on all the aforementioned historical background, and to prevent the perennial undercount of people in Lagos State, the government took some actions, the first of which was to sensitize the residents of their responsibility to be counted where they reside. The Governor of the State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu directed that citizens should stay at home during the period and be counted. For the first time in the history of the state, residents remain indoors for 6 days without any coercive enforcement! The media reported this phenomenon widely. The consequence was that Lagos State was able to reverse the normal trend of migration out of Lagos that was prevalent in the past censuses.

The State Government mobilized all local government chairmen and staff to provide logistics for NPC enumerators, supervisors (both local and cross posted), facilitators and co-ordinators. This effort which was not duplicated any where else in the country; was implemented due to our understanding of data and its usefulness for planning and subsequent development.

It is pertinent to realize that Lagos State had over the years planned the social security programme. The intent was to leverage on the 2006 census to secure and build a reliable database for planning for the citizens of Lagos. We therefore decided to carry out our own "census" to get relevant demographic information on Lagos State.

FACTS: As determined by NPC

For the enumeration exercise, NPC created 26,000 Enumeration Areas (EAs) for Lagos State. An EA is an identification reference for the housing and population in a precisely determined geographical area. As clearly stated in the NPC manual, each EA should contain between 500 – 1000 persons in urban areas. We all know that Lagos State is categorized as 95% urban. Based on this, NPC allocated about 54,554 enumerators to Lagos State. This amounts to a minimum of 2 per EA. The Lagos State Government, in order to collect its own data and to verify those collected by NPC, recruited 27,277 enumerators initially. They were referred to as census guides. As the exercise progressed, we realized that NPC was not measuring up at all. The logistics provided by NPC were grossly inadequate. For example, the ink pads meant for Lagos were not supplied until the 4

thday. Lagos State had to supply over 25,000 ink pads. Forms NPC 01 were not getting to the field as quickly as needed, and actually ran out at some point. A remarkable scenario observed by NPC officials in various areas of the State showed that there were buildings that were so massive that individually had to be divided into three EAs (Enumeration Areas). An example is "Iron gate building" at Tokunbo in Lagos. Similar situations prevailed in different parts of Lagos, such as Mushin, Ajegunle and others. Also in Ajegunle, officials encountered situations where families rent rooms on shift basis i.e. a particular family will stay in a room for eight hours, move out and another will move in for another eight hours! these are unique situations that NPC officials can attest to. This situation is unique to Lagos State because of the huge human density.

Across various communities in Lagos, Mushin, Agege, Ayobo, Yaba, Ebute-Metta, Orile Iganmu etc., the number of people encountered by NPC enumerators was overwhelming. Consequently, the Lagos State government decided to recruit additional 30,000 enumerators to assist NPC officials in doing a thorough job. These new recruits were not to fill the NPC 01 form because that required some training but were to help prepare the household occupants for quick completion of the forms and speed up the process.

As earlier stated, on day four of the exercise, we experienced form NPC 01 shortages. This to us was a disaster. To prevent undercounting of our citizens, the Lagos State Government provided an aircraft that brought a new batch of NPC 01 forms from Abuja to Lagos at the state’s expense.

Further Lagos State Government Action

Coupled with all the support given to NPC stated above, Lagos State printed our Data Collection Form and also Census Identification Slips. The plan was very simple. The state intended to collect data for her social security program by leveraging on the census. For the enumeration exercise therefore, Lagos State Government took all necessary financial, logistics and practical steps to ensure that the perennial under-counting was stopped or minimized to the barest. The state made available the following:

a) In anticipation of the role of remote sensing and GIS in modern census, the Government of Lagos State gave material and technical support to the NPC. The supports rendered are as follows:

•High resolution (QuickBird/IKONOS) for the metropolitan area and medium resolution (SPOT 2.5m and 5m colour) for the entire state.

•GIS Consultant support for the

•Processing

•Geo-referencing of the imageries to local datum,

•Annotation of imageries with roads, street and neighborhood names to permit field use of data for orientation and neighborhood identification

•Image map production at 1:2,500 scale for the urban areas and 1:10,000 for the rural areas

The image map products were extensively used in the field for the delineation of EA/SA boundaries but they were never returned to the consultant for a seamless map production. The NPC officials claimed it was a confidential process, and the field delineated boundaries on the image map products will be digitized by their in-house manpower. Unfortunately this has not been done to date. Thus, there are no seamless EA/SA maps to edit the demarcation procedure or verify any spatial overlaps, gaps or census released results.

This satellite image support by the state was done several months before the EU assistance came in. Since Lagos state had earlier provided the image support, there was no more need for the EU image products. If Lagos state had not given its support as at the time given, it would have been:

· impossible to use the EU products as at the time they were delivered and this was the case in other parts of the country.

· due to perennial cloud cover over Lagos, multiple images as acquired by Lagos state was not anticipated by the supplied EU products

•field activities would have been difficult as the products were not annotated with street or neighborhood names and this prevented their use in other states.

•responsive production of image maps on the request of EA/SA demarcators as was the case in Lagos, which was not done in any other state.

Consequently, Lagos state provided the best spatial support for the planning and conduct of the census of any state in the Federation.

b) Lagos State provided 57,000 guides/monitoring teams who assisted NPC team of enumerators to locate all EAs in the nooks and crannies of the State. At the same time, they were responsible for the data collection for the state social security scheme and the issuance of identification slips. The identification slip was to serve as proof that individuals were counted. It was made clear to Lagosians that social services will be rendered to citizens after showing proof of being counted. Hence, the slips were issued only after persons had been thumb printed. The state guides accompanied the NPC enumerators and were giving out slips after people had been counted by NPC enumerators.

c) We printed 5,000,000 ( Five Million) Data Collection Forms, with a form capable of taking data for 8 people. The volume of forms printed could accommodate enough data for as much as 40 million individuals. We realized that there are households with less than eight people, hence the need for these huge volumes for the Data Collection Form. People in Lagos State should be able to attest to these facts. Additionally, we printed 24 million Personal Identification Slips. A slip is meant for a single individual as proof of being counted in Lagos State. For Lagos State government, we took the exercise extremely seriously. We mobilized all commissioners, Special Advisers, Permanent Secretaries, Directors, teachers and a lot of Civil Servants to manage the enumeration exercise statewide. We also had the notion based on history that NPC might deliberately under report Lagos census figure. We therefore conducted a parallel census. The tactic is simple. TRUST BUT VERIFY. We wanted to verify the figures.

Why the figures released by npc are wrong

The 9,013,534 million released for Lagos State is wrong because it does not correlate with any available demographic or social parameters on the ground. Further our "parallel census" shows that the NPC numbers are grossly incorrect. These are the facts:

NPC and Nigerians generally should realize that there are other parameters established by international agencies worldwide by which population can be determined. Some of these are birth rate, number of houses and physical structures in a given area, vehicular density, children immunization, waste generation, school population and the cosmopolitan nature of the state.

This is a scientific and data-driven project. The data is available for independent analysts to see. Let us examine the different social and biological parameters that directly correlate with the population of a given locality.

Children Immunization Figures

Table 1 shows the figure of children immunization for 2004, 2005 and 2006. These are data sanctified by Federal Ministry of Health, UNESCO and WHO which acted as consultants, supervisors and monitors. Also involved in the immunization exercise was COMPASS, an NGO in Lagos. These figures predates the 2006 Housing and Population 2006 Census.

Table 1 : Immunization figures for children 0-5 yrs in Lagos State 2004-2006

Source: Lagos State Ministry of Health

 

 

Year

Number of Children

 Immunized

2004   3,289,560
2005  3,219,676
2006   3,186,195

These are results of polio vaccination carried out on children 0 -5 years of age. It is an international standard (UNESCO, UNITED NATIONS) that this age group constitutes roughly 20% of the population. Upon extrapolating therefore, and using the average figure of 3,238,973, Lagos state population will revolve around 16,194,863 with an error margin determined by the completion rate of the immunization exercise. From immunization and other health data, WHO had estimated a figure of about 16 million for Lagos State, based on the result of children immunization from the year 2000 to 2006. The Federal Ministry of Health is in possession of this information. Other sources such as the UNICEF and United Nations have estimated around 15 million based on various parameters. The data on children immunization confirms this hypothesis.

Housing Parameter:

Lagos State remains the only state in the country that supplied satellite imagery to NPC for housing and population enumeration. Based on this imagery, we know that we have about 4,750,000 million houses that are clearly identifiable. Out of these number, there are churches, mosques, schools, commercial enterprises and others. The residential properties are about 3.15 million. As shown in Table 2 below, the average household size for the state is 6. This data is the result of World Bank household survey done in collaboration with the Lagos State Office of Statistics in 2006. This is reasonable because the average household size in Bombay is 12 while that of Mexico City is 11 (UNICEF). Based on this figure and the number of residential properties in Lagos totaling 3.15 million, the size of Lagos resident should be around 18.90 million.

 Table 2:

Average Household Size and Modes of Transportation in Lagos State

Source: World Bank Report on Household Survey, 2006

 

Local Government

Average Mode of Transportation (%)

Household Size

 

Public Bus

Car

Okada

 

Agege 

 5 8

 3.1

 3.4

  4.5

Ajeromi/Ifelodun 

 7

 79.3

  2.2

  1.5

Alimosho

 6

 77.5

  6.9

  4.0

Amuwo Odofin

 5

 61.4

 19.3

 0.4

Apapa

 6

 84.0

 3.8

 1.7

Badagry

 4

 63.4

  5.2

  10.3

Epe

 5

 66.8

 1.9

 10.6

Eti-Osa

  5

  55.4

  24.0

  1.3

Ibeju Lekki

 5

 63.0

 6.8

 3.12

Ifako Ijaye

 4

  82.1

  6.6

  4.8

Ikeja

 5

 83.6

 10.6

 0.8

Ikorodu

 5

 78.4

  0.8

 0.8

Kosofe

 6 86

 .1

 4.1

 0.8

Lagos Island

 5

 68.2

 16.3

  2.1

Lagos Mainland

  5

 76.5

 14.9

 1.0

Mushin

 8 85

 .9

 7.0

 2.6

Ojo

 4

 70.2

 2.9

 1.5

Oshodi/Isolo

 5

 87.2

 7.2

 1.6

Somolu

 5

 91.0

 2.1

 0.6

Surulere

 5

 78.0

 20.3

 1.6

State Average

  6

 78.6

 7.6

 2.5

The data does not reflect walking, bicycle riding, canoeing and others.

 

Figure 1.

Percentage distribution of mode of transportation across the state

Key: 1 – Public Bus; 2- Car; 3-Okada

There are two, three and four storey buildings with high number of rooms in places like Ajegunle, Mushin, Yaba, Somolu, Agege, Badia, Ebute-Meta, Abule-Egba etc. That Lagos State is densely populated is hardly disputable. NPC census of 1991 confirmed this fact by reporting that Lagos State had 1790 people per square kilometer which was by far the largest in the country at the time.

NPC Form 01 (Household Forms) Parameter

By NPC admission, about 4.9 million (NPC 01) household forms were filled and scanned in Lagos State. It should be realized that each of the NPC 01 form can hold data for about 8 individuals. By posting the figure of 9,013,534, what NPC is suggesting, which is clearly illogical, is that on the average each NPC 01 form contained information for only about 2 people in Lagos State per household. Everybody who has been in Lagos knows that is intellectually deficient. As shown in Table 2, the average household size in Lagos is 6. Even if we choose to use an extremely conservative figure of four persons per household, then the population of the state should be around 19.6 millionpeople which is 4 x 4.9million forms.

Number of Enumeration Areas (EAs)

As earlier stated, the number of EAs in Lagos was 26,000. (Please recall that 90 maps were missing at the time of this demarcation by NPC). The number should be higher with accurate number of maps for the state. Given that as it may be, and using this number of 26,000, and going by their own (NPC) manual indicating that 500-1000 people should reside per EA in an Urban City/State, with an average of these figures which will be 750 people per Enumeration Area, then the population of Lagos should be about 19,500,000 (750 x 26, 000).

Number of vehicles and its density

Another parameter is the vehicular density based on data from Federal Office of Statistics. The vehicular density in Lagos was recorded at about 220/km². While the national average is 21/km². Evidently cars/vehicles are driven by people and carry people. Using the established empirical correlation between these two parameters

1, for a vehicular density of 220/km² the population of the state should be in the range of 16 to 17 million. Additionally, with the distribution of transportation mode (Table 2) and the number of vehicles in Lagos state (Table 3). Superimposing this figure on the distribution of transportation modes in various local governments, it is clear that the figure reported by NPC is false. What NPC population figure suggests is that majority of buses in Lagos are running empty. Anyone who has traveled around Lagos will agree that this is not the case.

Table 3: Overall Vehicle Population in Nigeria

STATE STATE LOCAL PRIVATE PRIVATE COMM COMM TOTAL % OF

GOVT GOVT GOVT M/V M/C M/V M/C TOTAL

STATE M/V M/C

LAGOS 5,441 338 1,262 1,110,551 76,338 202,582 85,434 1,481,946 22.02

FCT 2,486 894 913 291,191 37,449 43,233 5,763 381,929 5.67

ANAMBRA 1,341 290 322 71,083 182,768 49,322 64,974 370,100 5.50

KANO 1,756 869 940 119,898 79,844 58,259 77,697 339,263 5.04

DELTA 3,093 356 1,059 97,092 115,815 27,251 8,880 253,546 3.77

OYO 2,136 285 1,026 116,364 38,477 39,678 9,921 207,887 3.09

RIVERS 1,339 30 63 137,555 15,313 37,455 9,724 201,479 2.99

EDO 1,361 130 359 110,000 32,884 34,838 18,276 197,848 2.94

AKWA IBOM 1,383 43 81 39,523 123,718 10,086 21,160 195,994 2.91

ENUGU 1,451 277 232 85,662 58,519 31,095 12,360 189,596 2.82

KADUNA 1,917 530 424 91,023 54,403 27,341 7,268 182,906 2.72

ONDO 3,045 1,108 1,066 54,230 46,978 39,609 35,611 181,647 2.70

OGUN 1,724 541 270 74,962 16,132 42,837 28,405 164,871 2.45

PLATEAU 2,195 407 181 54,032 36,249 21,315 26,774 141,153 2.10

OSUN 2,544 728 824 51,140 55,327 27,858 915 139,336 2.07

BENUE 1,483 85 1,717 34,175 67,417 12,875 12,183 129,935 1.93

BAUCHI 2,677 213 759 21,715 58,528 12,162 26,281 122,335 1.82

IMO 2,435 220 441 53,206 42,932 18,501 4,221 121,956 1.81

KWARA 1,935 620 626 49,751 35,170 22,268 7,125 117,495 1.75

NIGER 1,251 260 343 39,820 52,964 14,719 1,885 111,242 1.65

BORNO 1,666 121 656 39,310 39,556 16,707 11,223 109,239 1.62

CROSS RIVER 745 70 75 26,937 43,740 6,296 30,657 108,520 1.61

KATSINA 2,312 493 2,270 26,832 30,032 14,005 26,676 102,620 1.52

ABIA 2,433 302 257 40,562 15,981 25,269 17,483 102,287 1.52

JIGAWA 1,424 253 287 17,560 25,863 14,789 40,460 100,636 1.50

GOMBE 699 251 315 18,803 30,146 10,770 32,598 93,582 1.39

SOKOTO 832 102 319 26,654 44,395 9,943 14,128 96,373 1.43

NASARAWA 1,030 29 252 17,035 44,473 7,776 22,372 92,967 1.38

ADAMAWA 1,164 132 376 27,646 54,755 6,857 55 90,985 1.35

ZAMFARA 737 239 172 13,527 27,145 11,674 30,677 84,171 1.25

KEBBI 492 264 286 22,467 29,410 8,489 11,613 73,021 1.08

KOGI 1,091 122 226 29,654 23,907 9,218 8,029 72,247 1.07

FED. GOVT 62,862 5,240 1 0 0 0 0 68,103 1.01

EKITI 1,578 215 518 26,364 19,643 12,525 8,281 69,124 1.03

YOBE 1,315 385 427 14,687 21,18 10,093 18,996 67,084 1.00

TARABA 1,285 384 150 10,945 18,617 7,389 18,477 57,247 0.85

BAYELSA 962 69 225 29,360 2,706 8,269 8,740 50,331 0.75

EBONYI 350 15 189 12,640 12,166 8,167 7,409 40,936 0.61

MILITARY 13,027 479 0 0 0 0 0 13,506 0.20

DIPLOMATS 5,550 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,550 0.08

TOTAL: 144,547 17,389 19,909 3,103,956 1,710,941 961,520 772,731 6,730,993 100.00

Source:

FRSC – September 2005

Key: M/V – Motor Vehicle

M/C – Motor Cycle

Comm – Commercial Motor Vehicle

A look at above table shows that 22% of all registered vehicles and motor cycles are in Lagos State. With the household average of six, with 1790/km2 as the population density in Lagos (NPC, 1991 Census). Based on the recently released NPC figures for Lagos State, the population density is (9,013,534 divided by 3,594.9) 2507/km2. Based on this figure, and using the empirical relationship between population density and vehicular density, which is:

Population = PD x 1/VD x NoV

= people x km

2x NoV

——— ———

km

2NoV

Where, PD is the Population Density

VD is the Vehicular Density, and

NoV is the Total No. of Vehicles in a given area

= 2507 x 1 x 1,481,946

——

220

= 16,889,604 people

Empirically, the population of Lagos State cannot be less than 16.89 Million. It should be realized that this calculation is based on the figures released by NPC. By their own population figure of Lagos State, all other social and demographic parameters are then useless. What we know is that the number of vehicles in the country shown in table 3 was released by Federal Road Safety Corps, an agency of the Federal Government.

3.6 Student Population

Below is the summation of student in primary and secondary schools in Lagos State. Table 4 shows those in private schools, while Table 5 gives data on student population in public schools. For a breakdown of the different categories (Junior Secondary School and Senior Secondary School) see appendix A.

 

Table 4

Private School Student population per local government across Lagos State

Source: Lagos State Education Management System / Ministry of Education

 

Local Government

No. of Schools

Student Population

Agege 

  485  

 41461

Ajeromi/Ifelodun 

 594

66916

Alimosho

2166

 197938

Amuwo Odofin

386

 48631

Apapa

273

19839

Badagry

  244

23943

Epe

65

45214

Eti-Osa

137

26471

Ibeju Lekki

12

1325

Ifako Ijaye

555

   47019

Ikeja

  287

31163

Ikorodu

709 

 59669

Kosofe

741

77281

Lagos Island

74

 10093

Lagos Mainland

    238  

 26927

Mushin

 451

39202

Ojo

1072

  69070

Oshodi/Isolo

525

53415

Somolu

325

33813

Surulere

444

  66234

State Total

   9,783

   985,624

There are 9,783 (Nine thousand, Seven Hundred and Eighty Three) private primary and Secondary Schools in Lagos State with a student population of 985,624 (Nine Hundred and Eighty Five Thousand, Six Hundred and Twenty Four). As shown in table 5 below, there are a total of 1,071, 651 (One Million, Seventy One Thousand, Six Hundred and Fifty One) students in public primary and secondary schools in Lagos State.

Table 5: Public School Student population per local government across Lagos State

Source: Lagos State Education Management System / Min. of Education

 

Local Government

No. of Schools

Student Population

Agege

 63

 57432

Alimosho

 93

 84952

Apapa

 36

 27361

Ajeromi-Ifelodun

110

 67058

Amuwo-Odofin

73

 31745

Badagry

76

 37992

Epe

 125

 33674

Eti-Osa

67

24272

Ifako-Ijaye

 30

 39655

Ikorodu

105

 76595

Ibeju-Lekki

54

14223

Ikeja

52

 36391

Kosofe

65

 62183

Lagos-Island

53

 24194

Lagos-Mainland

82

 45632

Mushin

112

 63505

Ojo

70

 49918

Oshodi-Isolo

 103

 70444

Somolu

63

 52853

Surulere

124

 71387

STATE TOTAL

1556

 1,071,651

The total primary and secondary student population in Lagos state is 2,057,275 (Two Million, Fifty Seven Thousand, Two Hundred and Seventy Five). It is apparent that these children have siblings outside of this catchment parameters, and parents who live in Lagos. With an average household size of 6 in Lagos State, a population density of 2250/km2, it shows that the population should not be less that 15 Million.

 

3.7 National Identification Card Program

It will be recalled that the Federal Government of Nigeria embarked on the National ID Card program sometime ago. Table 6 below shows the figure for the whole nation. Lagos is the only state that had issued cards above 4 Million, (Total number of cards issued for Lagos State was 4,069,541), while that of Kano State which came next was 1,683,501 Million. The ID card project was a Federal Government managed program, and was meant for people above 18. Though, the ID card programme was a failure, what is certain is that these people existed and were issued identification cards.

CARDS ISSUED

STATE NAME ESTIMATED REGISTED TOTAL PROCESSED MALE TOTAL FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL AMPUTEES % AMPUTATED IN STATE

ABIA 1,208.755 1,193.586 489,029 550,637 1,039,666 24,332 z

ADAMAWA 1,208.226 1,247.588 455.813 420.872 876.685 260.218 20.9%

AKWA-IBOM 1,257.349 1,242.732 470,127 522,308 992,435 39,358 3.2%

ANAMBRA 1,516.908 1,492.381 624,018 680,253 1,304,271 31.090 2.1%

BAUCHI 1,930.451 1,849.010 557,540 399,490 957,030 676,925 36.6%

BENUE 1,794.903 1,779.192 716,774 742,980 1,459,754 144,541 8.1%

BORNU 1,553.753 1,564.405 451,650 331,792 783,442 401,873 25.7%

BAYELSA 270.141 274.520 111,550 105,013 216,563 5,055 1.8%

CROSS-RIVER 1,010.282 987.232 428,496 444,650 873,146 39,805 4.0%

DELTA 1,437.184 1,462.040 624,728 660,637 1,285.365 52,110 3.6%

EBONYI 821.811 813.192 283,226 419,249 702,475 37,747 4.6%

STATE NAME ESTIMATED REGISTED TOTAL PROCESSED MALE TOTAL FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL AMPUTEES % AMPUTATED IN STATE

EDO 1,327.839 1,290.560 560,786 558,260 1,119,046 69,490 5.4%

EKITI 470.341 452.847 193,453 217,822 411,275 14,275 3.3%

ENUGU 1,233.338 1,220.698 463,685 631,624 1,095,309 32,746 2.7%

ABUJA FCT 439.573 593.663 283,905 200,700 484,605 57,842 9.7%

GOMBE 894.944 890.343 316,867 238,275 555,142 228,210 25.6%

IMO 1,296.153 1,275.919 513,897 664,321 1,178,218 26,401 2.1%

JIGAWA 1,483.891 1,458.561 312,885 194,041 506,926 519,673 25.6%

KEBBI 985.218 1,104.349 321,983 184,717 506,700 350,622 31.7%

KADUNA 2,492.497 2,553.298 878,431 750,587 1,629,018 556,632 21.8%

KOGI 983.419 980.564 376,367 413,729 790,096 78,603 8.0%

KANO 3,507.057 3,600.364 963,737 719,764 1,683,501 1,163,023 32.3%

KATSINA 2,226.092 2,223.262 555,014 431,801 986,815 772,182 34.7%

KWARA 904.447 874.227 353,760 371,098 724,858 77,337 8.8%

LAGOS

4,553.242 4,643.706 2,210,358 1,859,183 4,069,541 132,182 2.8%

NASSARAWA 782.378 857.674 309,204 279,052 588,256 93,251 10.9%

NIGER 1,435.472 1,498.224 591,449 452,603 1,044,052 258,679 17.3%

ONDO 1,116.704 1,101.269 464,210 488,968 953,178 34,842 3.2%

OGUN 1,575.825 1,566.939 680,008 739,681 1,419,689 82,511 5.3%

OSUN 1,102.724 1,135.586 465,977 547,141 1,013,118 49,149 4.3%

OYO 2,124.588 2,056.867 782,608 868,431 1,651,039 86,013 4.2%

PLATEAU 1,366.017 1,354.977 571,982 563,519 1,135,501 121,097 8.9%

RIVERS 1,401.461 1,353.649 469.055 430.358 899.413 20.717 1.5%

SOKOTO 1,295.425 1,307.489 317.020 180.680 497.700 575.810 44.0%

TARABA 1,066.436 1,010,721 378.942 333.785 712.727 210.711 20.8%

YOBE 725.112 814.567 295.268 180.848 476.116 225.803 27.7%

ZAMFARA 1,263.824 1,241.709 367.332 220.131 587.463 531.533 42.8%

TOTAL

52,063.780 1,062,078 16,929,987 16,234,093 31,880,000 6,228,362 14.4%

Table 6:

National ID Cards Issued per State as reported January 2007

NPC’s growth rate assumptions of 3% yearly across the country. Interesting, if you look at the data, this growth rate cuts across the 36 states. This is clearly illogically and does not happen anywhere in the world. Lagos remains the big population pull in Nigeria. The rate of increase for Lagos as an urban and financial capital of Nigeria thus means an average growth rate that should be considerably higher than the national average.

3.8 THE AUTHENTIC CENSUS: Lagos State Social Security

Exercise and Population Figure

At the end of the Census exercise, our own figures, which can be compared with other megacities, are in two parts (individual records from the Census Data Form and the Personal Identification Slips), clearly shows that the number recorded was 17,553,924 (Seventeen Million, Five Hundred and Fifty Three Thousand, Nine Hundred and Twenty Four). The number of males is 9,115,041 Nine Million, One Hundred and Fifteen Thousand and Forty One), while that of females is 8,437,901 (Eight Million, Four Hundred and Thirty Seven Thousand, Nine Hundred and One. Our data forms and Identification stubs are evidence for the whole nation to see. We have this data which we will clearly go ahead and use for our own planning. Table 6 shows the total population of Lagos State broken down per local government as recorded by state enumerators during the year 2006 census.

 

Table 7:

Population by Sex and Local Government Area. Lagos State: 2006

 

Local Government

 Male

 Female

 Total

Agege

 564,239

 468,825

1,033,064

Ajeromi-Ifelodun

723,644

711,651

 1,435,295

Alimosho

1,099,656

947,370

 2,047,026

Amuwo Odofin

301,012

223,959

524,971

Apapa

264,728

 257,656

522,384

Badagry

187,427

192,993

380,420

Epe

153,360

170,274

 323,634

Eti-Osa

460,124

523,391

983,515

Ibeju-Lekki

49,613

49,927

 99,540

Ifako-Ijaiye

380,112

364,211

744,323

Ikeja

328,778

 319,942

 648,720

Ikorodu

364,207

324,838

 689,045

Kosofe

527,539

407,075

 934,614

Lagos-Island

 461,830

 398,019

 859,849

Lagos-Mainland

326,433

303,036

629,469

Mushin

684,176

637,341

1,321,517

Ojo

507,693

433,830

 941,523

Oshodi-Isolo

 514,857

619,691

1,134,548

Somolu

517,210

507,913

 1,025,123

Surulere

698,403

 575,959

 1,274,362

STATE TOTAL

9,115,041

 8,437,901

17,552,942

 

3.9 Other Independent Reports

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report2on World population in 2000 reported the population of Lagos State as 13.4 Million. It should be observed that this agency of United Nations used all the above stated indices to determine populations of various cities worldwide. These reports were widely accepted because it tallied with census conducted by the respective countries, why is it that the figure released by NPC is far lower six years after than that of a credible agency. NPC is clearly wrong.

4.  CONCLUSION

The figure released by NPC as it pertains to Lagos is wrong, inaccurate and clearly illogical based on the visible demographic, biological and social parameters earlier highlighted.

As shown above, all the demographic, social and biological parameters that directly correlate with population figures show that the population of Lagos is more that the 9.013,534 Million figure reported by NPC.

NPC clearly abandoned its own data and reverted to mere projections based on the faulty foundation of 1991 census. In this projection by NPC, Lagos was to have a population of 9,944,266 by the year 2010. What was done was to trim this figure down to what is currently released. This is clearly unpatriotic. Because of the various errors that NPC had committed, it just reverted back to this projection. Some of the errors have been highlighted overleaf. The key was the number of EAs created for Lagos State. During census, to our utmost surprise, 90 Lagos State maps were missing from NPC files. Hence, many houses in various parts of Lagos State were not on the available maps, therefore these houses were not marked during the house listing exercise. If a house was not marked, enumeration cannot take place in these houses. What NPC now decided to do was to discard data of counted people as long as they don’t have maps. They failed to realize that it is their fault for losing the maps and that society is dynamic in nature. We challenge NPC to open up its database to independent observers and our figures will be confirmed. We are confident that if NPC actually scanned the NPC 01 Form recorded in Lagos State, (about 4.9m of them) our own figures will be certainly be confirmed The fact that Lagos State Identification Slips were given to individuals after they had thumb printed the NPC 01 forms clearly shows that our (LASG) figure should not be far from theirs.

We therefore REJECT this figure of 9.013,534 Million allocated to Lagos State and we are ready for the Tribunal but before then we will invite international and independent experts to corroborate our findings.

It is very apparent that NPC had not completed the analysis of the huge data accumulated during the census. Though they claimed that this figures are provisional, one wonders what that means in a practical sense. How come they have not released the housing census and the breakdown per Local Government? After all, the data were collected on local government basis. Each Local Government had a controller managing census data. The forms were submitted and stored based on Local Governments. To release the figures without Local Government breakdown is frivolous. It should be realized that the 2006 exercise was an enumeration of both population and housing. The information was all on the same form, scanned at a single time. Why would NPC release only the population component? Anybody with a good sense of database administration especially with data collected from OMR forms will realize that all the accumulated information should be available at the same time with a simple query. How is it that some Nigerians are deliberately under developing Nigeria? These are the agencies of government that are holding millions of Nigerian back and destroying the future of generations unborn. They now literally have wiped out over 8 million Lagosians! If the NPC figures are accepted.

The figure "allocated" to Lagos State is a disservice to humanity. With single houses across the state making up more than an EA, with 4.9 million household forms, with 3.15 Million residential houses and thousands of homeless lagosians, over 2 Million primary, and secondary school children in public and private schools, with immunization figure for children ages of 0 – 5 years well over 3 million, and vehicular density of 220/km², with 60% of Nigerian economic activity taking place in Lagos State and 22% of all registered means of transportation domiciled in Lagos, how can residents of Lagos State be less than 18 million? With the figure of 9,013,534 released by NPC and with 20 Local Government and 37 Development Areas in Lagos State, NPC holds that the population per Local/Development Government Area in Lagos State is about 158,132 on the average. That is clearly laughable.

Finally, with our own data from the same census exercise, with Identification Slips given to individuals after thumb printing of NPC 01 form, we in Lagos make bold to say that NPC conspired to distort the census figures and deliberately reduce the number of Lagos State Citizens. Posterity will record their action on the negative side of history. However, the people and government of Lagos will fight this injustice with all it takes. We have enough evidence highlighted above to inform the intelligent people of Nigeria that the figure is unreasonable and should be dumped where it belongs. What a wasted effort! Let me emphasize that Lagos State is not in competition with any other State, we were only in Lagos State during census, we were only going round the state, receiving calls from citizens and monitoring the process, we can therefore only logically comment on Lagos State. We know the figure released for Lagos is WRONG and cannot be true and is rejected as such.

Our nation goes through enormous policy summersaults due to lack of adequate and reliable database. With agencies like NPC the trend will continue. However, we in Lagos State will determine our own destiny and manage our population. We have our data, our figures and the good people of Oshodi, Orile Agege, Alimosho, Ajegunle and indeed all Lagosians will agree that ENOUGH is ENOUGH. For the state government to plan for the good people of Lagos, our figure is 17,553,924. Q.E.D.

Chief Obafemi Awolowo described the cancelled 1973 census as a "barren exercise". Our view in Lagos is that the 2006 census, is "yet another barren exercise"

 

References

1. Gordon, Peter (1976). The relationship between population density, automobile ownership and automobile use and its role in transportation planning: The Annals of Regional Science 10(3): 118-129

2. The State of World Population: A report by the United Nations Population Fund, 2001

3. Household Survey in Lagos State: A report by the World Bank and Lagos State Ministry of Economic Planning, 2006

4. Children Immunization for 2004, 2005 and 2006. A report by WHO and Lagos State Ministry of Health

Appendix A: Student Population for public primary, Junior Sec Schools and Senior secondary Schools in Lagos State, 2006

Local Govt.

School Category

 No. of Schools

Student Population

Agege

 

 

 

 

 Primary

 50

 23420

 

  Junior Sec. Sch.

 6

 18092

 

  Senior Sec. Sch.

 7

 15870

 

 SUB-TOTAL

 63

 57382

Alimosho

 

 

 

 

Primary

59

 32,571

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 18

 28783

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

16

 23538

 

SUB-TOTAL  

93

 84,892

Apapa

 

 

 

 

Primary

24

11664

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 6

 7726

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

6

7921

 

SUB-TOTAL  

36

 27311

Ajeromi-Ifelodun

  

 

 

 

Primary

70

 29215

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 20

 19379

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

20

 18414

 

SUB-TOTAL  

110

 67008

Amuwo-Odofin

 

 

 

 

Primary

37

11552

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 18

 10889

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

18

 9254

 

SUB-TOTAL  

73

31695

Badagry

 

 

 

 

Primary

50

 16615

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 13

 11556

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

13

 9771

 

SUB-TOTAL  

76

 37942

Epe

 

 

 

 

Primary

76

 17749

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 25

 8591

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

24

 7284

 

SUB-TOTAL  

125

 33624

Eti-Osa

 

 

 

 

Primary

 35

 12447

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 16

 2469

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

16

9306

 

SUB-TOTAL  

67

 24222

Ifako-Ijaye

 

 

 

 

Primary

18

 11573

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 8

 20290

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

4

7742

 

SUB-TOTAL  

30

 39605

Ikorodu

 

 

 

 

Primary

56

 28233

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 25

 26182

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

24

 22130

 

SUB-TOTAL  

105

 76545

Ibeju-Lekki

 

 

 

 

Primary

35

 9892

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 10

 2469

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

9

1812

 

SUB-TOTAL  

 54

 14173

Ikeja

 

 

 

 

Primary

 30

 12209

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

12

 12496

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

10

 11636

 

SUB-TOTAL  

 52

 36341

Kosofe

 

 

 

 

Primary

 41

 23428

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 12

21028

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

12

17667

 

SUB-TOTAL  

65

 62123

Lagos-Island

 

 

 

 

Primary

33

 11609

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

10

 6217

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

 10

 6318

 

SUB-TOTAL  

 53

 24144

Lagos-Mainland

 

 

 

 

Primary

57

 22050

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

15

 12376

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

10

 11156

 

SUB-TOTAL  

82

 45582

Mushin

 

 

 

 

Primary

76

 26449

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

18

18398

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

18

 18608

 

SUB-TOTAL  

112

 63455

Ojo

 

 

 

 

Primary

41

 20347

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

15

 16007

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

14

13514

 

SUB-TOTAL  

 70

 49868

Oshodi-Isolo

 

 

 

 

Primary

47

 23577

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 28

24517

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

28

 22300

 

SUB-TOTAL  

 103

 70394

Somolu

 

 

 

 

Primary

48

 20229

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

9

19305

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

6

13239

 

SUB-TOTAL  

63

 52773

Surulere

 

 

 

 

Primary

64

 21884

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 30

 26306

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

30

 23146

 

SUB-TOTAL  

 124

71336

STATE TOTAL

1556

 1,071,651

 

 

Appendix B: Student Population for private primary, Junior Secondary

School and Senior Secondary School in all Local

Governments of Lagos State, 2006.

 

Local Govt.

School Category

 No. of Schools

Student Population

 

 

 

 

Agege

 Primary

 373

29315

 

  Junior Sec. Sch.

 63

 6295

 

  Senior Sec. Sch.

49

5851

 

 SUB-TOTAL

85

   41461

 

 

 

 

Alimosho

Primary

1537

 123,435

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 335

 49621

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

294

24882

 

SUB-TOTAL  

   2166

    197,938

 

 

 

 

Apapa

Primary

261

16883

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

7

1901

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

5

1055

 

SUB-TOTAL  

   273

  19839

 

 

 

 

Ajeromi-Ifelodun

Primary

499

51861

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 56

  8836

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

39

6219

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  594

  66916

  

 

 

 

Amuwo-Odofin

Primary

282

30207

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

57

9276

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

47

 9148

 

SUB-TOTAL  

   386

    48631

  

 

 

 

Badagry

Primary

195

18911

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 31

3603

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

18

 1429

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  244

   23943

 

 

 

 

Epe

Primary

52

 42950

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

6

1105

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

7

1159

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  65

  45214

 

 

 

 

Etiosa

Primary

  98

 204116

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

21

3693

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

18

2662

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  137

   210471

 

 

 

 

Ifako-Ijaye

Primary

415

 33056

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

74

5727

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

66

8236

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  555

   47019

 

 

 

 

Ikorodu

Primary

572

48376

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

18

 7196

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

56

 4097

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  646

   59669

 

 

 

 

Ibeju-Lekki

Primary

10

803

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

1

321

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

1

201

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  12

  1325

 

 

 

 

Ikeja

Primary

 193

 22191

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

49

 4543

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

45

 4429

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  287

   31163

 

 

 

 

Kosofe

 

Primary

 629

64798

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 64

6368

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

48

62115

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  741

   133281

 

 

 

 

Lagos-Island

Primary

63

 9362

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

7

546

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

4

 185

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  74

  10093

 

 

 

 

Lagos-Mainland

Primary

184

18228

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

27

 4605

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

27

 4094

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  238

  26927

 

 

 

 

Mushin

Primary

358

 28933

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

49

5557

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

44

4712

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  451

  39202

 

 

 

 

Ojo

Primary

766

 49201

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

169

 10043

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

137

9826

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  1072

   69070

 

 

 

 

Oshodi-Isolo

Primary

400

40648

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

 63

6193

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

62

 6574

 

SUB-TOTAL  

   525

  53415

Somolu

 

 

 

 

Primary

263

25624

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

31

42384

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

31

3805

 

SUB-TOTAL  

  325

   71813

 

 

 

 

Surulere

Primary

361

 48869

 

Junior Sec. Sch.

44

9203

 

Senior Sec. Sch.

39

8162

 

SUB-TOTAL  

   444

  66234

 

 

 

 

STATE TOTAL

1556

9720

1,263,624

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3 Responses to “DOCUMENT: "Errors, Miscalculations, Omissions in Lagos Census Figures"”

  1. alukome says:

    THIS DAY

    2006 Census: Lagos is 17.5m, Not 9.03m, Says Tinubu
    By Deji Elumoye, 02.06.2007

    Lagos

    Lagos State government yesterday officially reacted to the 2006 Population Census report putting the population figure of the state at 17,553,924, saying the 9.013 million figure declared by the National Population Commission (NPC) was ridiculous.
    The state reject in totality, the 9,013,534 figure allocated to the state in the result released on December 30, 2006 by the NPC, following the Population and Housing census conducted between 21 and 30 of March 2006.
    Making the position of the state government known at a Stakeholders forum/World Press Conference and Public Presentation of a book titled

  2. Anonymous says:

    Dr Kadri O. Hamzat (Lagos State Commisioner for Science & Technology) initially said " Our own slips show that we have 18,924,401 – the returned slips. And we also know that we did not give everybody the slips , " .

    During the release of Lagos State "Census" , he now claims "Our own figures, which can be compared with other megacities clearly shows the number recorded was 17,553,924."

    From the inconsistencies of the above 2 statements, It clearly shows Lagos State is playing politics with a serious matter of census Figures.

    Lagos State Claims in 2006 Children 0-5 years = 3,186,195
    Lagos State Figures National ID Card 18 years – above (2003) = 4,553,342
    Lagos State Figures National Voters register (2003) = 4,558,216

    If people in the age ranges 0-5 & 18- above = 7.7 Million approximately without the factor of people leaving during the census. Is Lagos State now Claiming people within the age range 6-17 years are nearly 10 Million ? despite arguing that primary and secondary school student population is 2,057,275.

    Note: Kano State Claims 3.8 Million Children 0-5 years

  3. dennis bamidele says:

    pls send me the total population lkeja

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